[ RadSafe ] AW: Uncertainties are too large to decide either way!

[Rainer.Facius at dlr.de]

Dear Dr. Parthasarathy:

 

I agree that this single graph tells nothing about the dependency of cancer risk on radiation dose, neither in Kerala nor elsewhere, and I regret and recant if I left the impression that I wanted to draw conclusions from these data.

 

Yet, given the so far consistent absence in epidemiological data of an enhancement of cancer risks for adults from chronic low dose exposures up to some hundred mSv, given the results from several epidemiological studies testifying to the contrary (either for thresholds or even for hormesis), and given the advances in biological insight which led to the development of several quite sophisticated models of cellular (and tissue) mechanisms which do predict that contrary behaviour for relevant endpoints and which in turn have been corroborated in laboratory work, I would be quite surprised if subsequent more consolidated data on Kerala would display a significant reversal of the trend presently seen, though of course I cannot exclude it. 

 

And therefore, I do believe that it is worth trying to visualize these data as well as others which often remain hidden behind convoluted 'arithmetic' for whatever reasons you might conjecture.

 

Thank you for your additional information and again please keep us informed about your progress.

 

Best regards, Rainer Facius

 
Dr. Rainer Facius
German Aerospace Center
Institute of Aerospace Medicine
Linder Hoehe
51147 Koeln
GERMANY
Voice: +49 2203 601 3147 or 3150
FAX:   +49 2203 61970
 

________________________________

Von: parthasarathy k s [mailto:ksparth at yahoo.co.uk] 
Gesendet: Freitag, 5. August 2005 07:18
An: Facius, Rainer; hflong at pacbell.net; fly5515 at yahoo.com; radsafe at radlab.nl
Cc: Reitz, Günther; Meier, Matthias
Betreff: Uncertainties are too large to decide either way!



Dear Dr.Rainer Facius,
 
I am sorry I did not indicate the average radiation level. The average is about 7.5 mGy in the high background radiation area.
 
During the seven years in which I was a member of the monitoring committee of the Natural High Background Radiation Cancer Registry project, I used to insist on taking away the pencil and graph sheets of some of the members to prevent them from drawing any graph! Since you are too far away I cannot do that! as expected, you drew the graph!
 
I feel that the conclusions in the paper in Radiation Research is only preliminary.Lot more work needs to be done; particularly on doses to individual inhabitants. We have to account for radon/thoron contribution, contribution of thorium in blood etc.
 
Let us wait for the final result; till such time your conclusion may be correct! the reverse also may be true.
 
Regards
 
K.S.Parthasarathy Ph.D
Raja Ramanna Fellow
Deprtment of Atomic Energy
Mumbai