AW: [ RadSafe ] AW: Low level radiation and cancer:

Mon Aug 15 22:21:29 CDT 2005

Hi Rainer,

Try this for Kerala vs. India life expectancy:
http://www.jadski.com/kerala/d3lexpectancy.htm 

http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC26/AtKisson.htm 

(with 20,000 more Google 'hits' on [kerala "life expectancy" ] :-)

Regards, Jim 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On
> Behalf Of Rainer.Facius at dlr.de
> Sent: Friday, August 12, 2005 10:13 AM
> To: chris.hofmeyr at webmail.co.za
> Cc: radsafe at radlab.nl
> Subject: AW: AW: [ RadSafe ] AW: Low level radiation and cancer:
> 
> Christian:
> 
> Thank you for your information regarding the life expectancy in Kerala
> exceeding that of normal Indians by a huge 19 years. I wonder whether you
> might be able to dig up this information in writing. Nowadays TV stations
> often publish manuscripts of their broadcasts on their website. Since you
> did see this interview, you are the one predestined to search for such a
> document.
> 
> Regarding your suggestion to study life expectancy as a function of the
> natural radiation exposure, my attitude is spilt.
> 
> Given the never-ending hassles regarding the influence of confounders,
> competing - in particular socio-economic - factors etc., etc., I sincerely
> doubt that such a crude population wide measure will yield the convincing
> evidence you expect. That an endpoint even less specific than cancer could
> reveal a compelling association with background dose radiation which
> cancer studies - with the exception of B. Cohen's work for lung cancer -
> were so far unable to establish would appear as a miracle to me and many
> more.
> 
> On the other hand, if indeed differences in the order of the Kerala life
> span excess could be demonstrated elsewhere and associated with radiation
> exposure, that really might be able to finally put LNT to rest. A far as
> science is concerned, I see the life expectancy of the LNT postulate
> approaching its natural demise anyway, so that to accelerate its departure
> might not be worth the efforts necessary for the studies which you suggest
> (of course Jim Muckerheide will vehemently object). If however such
> results could be construed as a case for radiation-hormesis working in
> human populations, the implications are hardly imaginable and of course
> would merit any effort.
> 
> Hopefully you will be able to find that interview and share it.
> 
> Kind regards, Rainer
> 
> Dr. Rainer Facius
> German Aerospace Center
> Institute of Aerospace Medicine
> Linder Hoehe
> 51147 Koeln
> GERMANY
> Voice: +49 2203 601 3147 or 3150
> FAX:   +49 2203 61970
> 
> -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: Christian Hofmeyr [mailto:chris.hofmeyr at webmail.co.za]
> Gesendet: Freitag, 12. August 2005 14:36
> An: Facius, Rainer
> Cc: Bernard Cohen; radsafe at radlab.nl
> Betreff: Re: AW: [ RadSafe ] AW: Low level radiation and cancer:
> 
> Rainer,
> Thanks for your response.  I think we agree on important points.  What I
> wanted to emphasise is that the most sensitive direct test of LNT can be
> devised by its prediction regarding collective dose, probably in the
> framework of an ecological study.  I am very respectful of prof Cohen's
> work on radon (per implication based on collective lung dose) and his
> willingness to make his data available for scrutiny. However, as I tried
> to point out in a closing remark, there are IMO serious problems
> concerning particularly lung cancer, and I intend to comment more in due
> course.
> In view of the claims of hormesis supporters (regarding health improvement
> through e.g. stimulation of the immune
> system) and the challenge by John Jacobus, there might be value in
> considering longevity in areas with different background radiation levels,
> rather than focussing on cancer alone.  Life duration statistics are
> probably much more reliable than health (or cause of death) statistics in
> many interesting places.   Put simply, this could
> indirectly (per implication) provide answers concerning hormesis and even
> LNT, mindful of the collective dose prediction.  The necessary caveats
> apply.
> I gathered from a recent BBC interview with a Nobel Prize-winning Indian
> economist that the 'traditional'
> differential between India and China in average life expectancy was 14
> years, 57 in India versus 71 in China.
>   The exception was the Indian state of Kerala, where life expectancy was
> 76(!).  This was mentioned as an aside, in no particular context.  The
> interview was about favourable developments and had nothing to do with
> radiation.
> >From our perspective it would be relevant to know what percentage of the
> Kerala population lived in high radiation areas, and, particularly, how
> life expectancy varied between high and low radiation areas.
> Parthasarathy pointed out to you that Krishnan Nair et al. (Radiation
> Research, 152, p145-148, 1999) preliminarily found no significant
> difference in cancer incidence, but I contend the life duration stats are
> bound to be more reliable.
> Closer to home, the Swedes seem to have the highest life expectancy and
> the elevated background conditions are well known.  The statistics for
> parts of France and Germany should also be readily available.  It seems to
> be a question of collating available data.
> Chris.Hofmeyr at webmail.co.za
> 
> 
> 
> On Thu, 11 Aug 2005 15:41:11 +0200
>  <Rainer.Facius at dlr.de> wrote:
> >Christian:
> >
> >Your comments by and large hit instead of being off the marks.
> >
> >Yet, in some cases it appears you make things more complicated than
> >necessary. E.g., in order to determine etc.
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