[ RadSafe ] UNbiased Chernobyl Statistics(56 +15, 000)/2 =? : Re: Chernobyl radiation death toll 56 so far - U.N .

[Emil]

George,

I liked the article.
It is similar to the warfare statistics.

Just trying to create, some more Statistics about Chernobyl
statistics. 
1. Since, we can assume that data are NON-biased since, there were at
least two different political systems and a few different governments
replacing each other.

1.2. It was better to UNDER report => to save the nation's face. 

1.3. Then it was better to OVER report to get more money to run the
projects. 

1.4. Then it was again low is better, 
then high became better..etc.

Okay, We got the idea.

Let's try to do some of that MCountriesRSSIM on these very biased in
nature data but with very unbiased outcome.
UN-biased due to.. constant changing political conditions.


(56 +15,000)/2 = 7528 for the average would be just about right.
That way nobody for sure will be forgotten or missing in action.


After the war there is always unknown soldier.

Yes, yes, what about those unknown soldiers?

Here is the NON-biased statistics quiz.

1. If there were 350,000 residents moved out.

Then how many people were moved IN? 


2. If there were 250,000 workers and soldiers who were moved THRU.

a. Then how many stayed in and passed away? 

b. How many of those who moved thru and then passed away?

3. I do not know the exact answers because I was the one who just
moved in, stayed in, pass out and then was fortunate enough to move
ON.

Best Regards,

Emil.


> 
> Message: 17
> Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2005 11:52:41 -0400
> From: "George J. Vargo" <vargo at physicist.net>
> Subject: [ RadSafe ] Chernobyl radiation death toll 56 so far - U.N
> To: "RADSAFE" <radsafe at radlab.nl>
> Message-ID: <009a01c5b231$d9c6c030$6401a8c0 at S0029339641>
> Content-Type: text/plain;	charset="us-ascii"
> 
> Chernobyl radiation death toll 56 so far - U.N
> Mon Sep 5, 2005 3:38 PM BST
> 
> By Francois Murphy
> VIENNA (Reuters) - The number of people killed by radiation as a
> result of
> the Chernobyl disaster, the world's worst nuclear accident, is so
> far 56,
> far lower than previously thought, the U.N. said on Monday.
> 
> A report compiled by the Chernobyl Forum, which includes eight U.N.
> agencies, said the final death toll was expected to reach about
> 4,000 --
> much lower than some previous estimates -- and that the greatest
> damage to
> human health caused by the incident was psychological.
> 
> The disaster occurred at 1:24 a.m. on April 26, 1986, when an
> explosion at
> Reactor 4 of the Ukrainian power plant spewed a cloud of
> radioactivity over
> Europe and the Soviet Union, particularly contaminating Belarus,
> Russia and
> Ukraine.
> 
> Over the years, wildly varying reports have put the death toll as
> high as
> 15,000.
> 
> "The mental health impact of Chernobyl is the largest public health
> problem
> unleashed by the accident to date," said the Chernobyl Forum
> report.
> 
> The forum includes the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
> World
> Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and U.N. Development
> Programme (UNDP),
> and the governments of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.
> 
> U.N. officials said to date the death toll was 47 emergency
> workers, and
> nine children who had died of thyroid cancer.
> 
> About 4,000 people developed thyroid cancer as a result of the
> accident,
> most of them children and adolescents in 1986. The survival rate,
> however,
> had been almost 99 percent, the report said.
> 
> Another group that suffered greatly was the thousands of emergency
> workers
> who helped extinguish the blaze and entomb the reactor in concrete.
> They and
> staff at the plant received very high radiation doses immediately
> after the
> accident.
> 
> "By and large, however, we have not found profound negative health
> impacts
> to the rest of the population in surrounding areas, nor have we
> found
> widespread contamination that would continue to pose a substantial
> threat to
> human health, with a few exceptional, restricted areas," said the
> forum's
> Chairman, Burton Bennett. 
> 
> THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
> 
> The forum's report "Chernobyl's Legacy: Health, Environmental and
> Socio-Economic Impacts" examines the effects of the disaster as its
> 20th
> anniversary approaches. The report is itself a digest of another,
> 3-volume,
> 600-page report by hundreds of scientists, economists and health
> experts.
> 
> Most emergency workers and residents of contaminated areas received
> relatively low radiation doses, comparable to background levels,
> the U.N.
> said in a statement.
> 
> Apart from thyroid cancer, there was no evidence of any increase in
> cancer
> or leukemia rates among local residents, it said, nor was there
> evidence of
> decreased fertility or of a higher rate of congenital
> malformations.
> 
> For the 350,000 people moved out of contaminated areas, however,
> relocation
> was a "deeply traumatic experience" which often left them
> unemployed, the
> U.N. statement said.
> 
> People from areas near Chernobyl were labeled as 'victims' rather
> than
> 'survivors', which led them to view themselves as "helpless, weak
> and
> lacking control over their future," it said.
> 
> "This, in turn, has led either to over-cautious behavior and
> exaggerated
> health concerns, or to reckless conduct, such as ... overuse of
> alcohol and
> tobacco, and unprotected sexual activity," the statement added.
> 
> Many evacuated areas were now safe, and the area of zones
> classified as
> contaminated was too large, the report said.
> 
> Apart from the still closed, highly contaminated 30 km (19 mile)
> area
> surrounding the reactor and some closed lakes and restricted
> forests,
> radiation levels had mostly returned to acceptable levels, the
> statement
> said.
> 
> Benefits offered to 'victims' were expanded to 7 million people now
> eligible
> for pensions, special allowances and health benefits. These needed
> to be
> scaled down or target only high-risk groups, though it would be
> unpopular,
> it said.
> 
> But the statement added that the concrete sarcophagus built to
> contain the
> damaged reactor was also in danger of collapse.
> The forum meets for two days in Vienna starting on Tuesday.
> 
> 
> George J. Vargo, Ph.D., CHP
> Senior Scientist
> MJW Corporation
> http://www.mjwcorp.com
> 610-925-3377
> 610-925-5545 (fax)
> vargo at physicist.net
> 


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