AW: [ RadSafe ] Re: Exposed "had lower incidences of all cancers - "Environmental -

[John Jacobus]

Rainer,
I am aware of that interpretation about the
significans of the of SIR values.  That being said,
are the values for reduced cancer incidents also
insignificant?  Or does the relevance of the numbers
not important if you have a political view the
radiation is good?

Cherry-picking data is common.  It is used by those
who are anti-radiation and who are looking for a
hormetic effect.  Nevertheless, one needs to consider
all of the studies, and not just one report.

--- Rainer.Facius at dlr.de wrote:

> John,
> 
> if you were able to properly interpret the numbers
> given by you, you would not claim that they prove an
> increased incidence, not to speak of a causal
> relation.
> 
> The 95% SIR confidence interval for leukaemia (all
> types) is (0.85, 2.12, 4.37), i.e., utterly
> insignificant.
> For malignant lymphoma it is (1.01, 3.13, 7.29),
> i.e., essentially insignificant again. 
> 
> If you ask professional epidemiologists, you will
> find a consensus that in order for an association to
> be considered established by such studies, the
> confidence interval for standard mortality or
> incidence ratios should exclude the value of three
> or at least two, i.e., the _lower_ confidence limit
> should be above that value. Findings below that
> value at best can serve as a rationale to spend
> money on a repetition of a study.
> 
> Kind regards, Rainer
> 
> Dr. Rainer Facius
> German Aerospace Center
> Institute of Aerospace Medicine
> Linder Hoehe
> 51147 Koeln
> GERMANY
> Voice: +49 2203 601 3147 or 3150
> FAX:   +49 2203 61970
> 
> -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] Im Auftrag von
> John Jacobus
> Gesendet: Freitag, 12. Januar 2007 16:16
> An: radsafe
> Cc: Rad Science List
> Betreff: [ RadSafe ] Re: Exposed "had lower
> incidences of all cancers - "Environmental - 
> 
> Dr. Long,
> Again, another typical example of cherry-picking
> data.
> 
> As noted in Table III
> Leukemia (all-types) Observed 7; Expected 3.3
> Malignant Lymphoma   Observed 5; Expected 1.6
> 
> If you are unable to read the article, how can one
> expect to have an intelligent discussion with you?
> 
> Why do you constantly quote the incomplete data of
> Chen, et.al. of 2004?
> 
> --- howard long <hflong at pacbell.net> wrote:
> 
> > John Jacobus, the paper you refer to did, indeed,
> mislead in its 
> > "Conclusion", comparing its tables and discussion.
> >   HPs can judge for themselves:
> >   "Correspndence: Dr W Peter Chang, Inst. of
> Environmental Health 
> > Sciences, National Y U Med School 155, sec2 Linong
> St. Taipei112, 
> > Taiwan"
> >    
> >   Int.J. Radiat. Biol, Vol82, No.12, Dec. 2006 pp
> > 849-858
> >   (The Environmental Health Sciences  review by
> Chang et al of  cancer 
> > risks in 7,271 persons exposed to 1 to 2,363 mSv
> gamma over 23 years),
> >   "ABSTRACT
> >   Conclusion [ in entirety],
> >    The results suggest that prolonged low dose
> radiation exposure 
> > appeared to increase risks of developing certain
> cancers in specific 
> > subgroups  of this population in Taiwan."
> >    
> >    "Received 12 May 2005; revised 11 Sept. 2006;
> accepted 18 Oct. 
> > 2006".
> >    
> >   The opposite impression, much cancer was
> prevented by the radiation, 
> > is clear from its
> >    
> >   Table III "All cancers - Observed  95 Expected
> > 114.9 "
> >               "Solid cancers - Observed 82
> Expected 109.5" and
> >   "Discussion: - Compared to the reference
> population, the study 
> > population had lower incidences of all cancers
> combined, all cancers 
> > combined except leukemia and all solid cancers
> combined (Table III)."
> >    
> >  

+++++++++++++++++++
“We must face the fact that the United States is neither omnipotent or omniscient — that we are only 6 percent of the world’s population; that we cannot impose our will upon the other 94 percent of mankind; that we cannot right every wrong or reverse each adversity; and therefore there cannot be an American solution to every world problem.”
-- John F. Kennedy 

-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  crispy_bird at yahoo.com


 
____________________________________________________________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Everyone is raving about the all-new Yahoo! Mail beta.
http://new.mail.yahoo.com