[ RadSafe ] Basrah cancers (Salsman's citations)

[Steven Dapra]

Jan. 25, 2007

On Jan. 24 James Salsman (JS) wrote:
I'm sorry, the URL in my earlier message below is for congenital 
malformations (birth defects). The original citations for the Basra cancers 
are here:
http://www.irak.be/ned/archief/Depleted%20Uranium_bestanden/DEPLETED%20URANIUM-1-%20INCIDENCE.htm 

and:
http://www.irak.be/ned/archief/Depleted%20Uranium_bestanden/DEPLETED%20URANIUM-3-%20INCIDENCE.htm

Otto Raabe replied:
These articles are totally worthless. There is no statistically significant 
difference among the annual data for any of the diseases that are listed. 
Also, the suggested depleted uranium exposures are hypothetical and the 
etiological connection is imaginary.

Additional comments:

         I have read the "earlier message" offered by JS and the two 
recommended above.  The earlier one says:  "Ionising radiation can be 
highly penetrating and is capable of causing mutation in man [citation 
omitted] and those can cause defective development of human embryos if 
exposure occurs."  This is true, of course, however depleted uranium is an 
alpha emitter and alpha is not penetrating.

         This paper says there was an unacceptably high level of 
radioactivity in plants near Basrah, Iraq, however it gives no levels --- 
not here and not anywhere in the paper.  It also acknowledges that there 
was a "relatively small number of cases" of disease.  It covers only the 
period from 1990 to 1998, and says nothing about rates before 1990.  The 
next to last sentence says:  "The evidence so far presented [on?] the 
effect of ionising radiation in this study on the incidence of congenital 
anomalies is circumstantial."  Note the qualifier:  circumstantial.

         Another paper reports 488 cancers in Basrah in 1990, and 544 in 
1997 (a 1.115% increase).  These are all cancers in tissue (no 
leukemias).  Don't solid tumors have a typical latency period of 20 
years?  The third paper says other factors cause cancer, "but the evidence 
presented by our data point out clearly to the role of exposure to depleted 
uranium in developing cancer among children in Basrah."

         The nature of this "evidence" is not revealed.  None of these 
papers give any exposure levels, nor do they show a cause and effect 
relationship between (alleged) exposure to DU, and cancers.  They are 
merely a series of assertions, accompanied by some tables of incidence 
rates and percentages of increase.

         JS's argument about vapors cooling and so forth is an argument 
about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.  First he has to show 
that any of the alleged victims inhaled any of these vapors, then he has to 
show that this exposure caused the cancers he invokes.  JS has done neither 
of these, and I doubt that he (or anyone else) can do the latter, so the 
whole thing falls down flat right there.

Steven Dapra
sjd at swcp.com