[ RadSafe ] [Nuclear News] Japan quake not seen slowing U.S. nuclear revival

[Sandy Perle]

Japan quake not seen slowing U.S. nuclear revival

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) Jul 20 - A resurgence of nuclear power in the 
United States likely won't be stalled by this week's earthquake in 
Japan that shut the world's largest nuclear plant, industry watchers 
said.

A 6.8-magnitude earthquake on Monday killed 10 people and flattened 
homes in northwestern Japan. It also started a fire at the seven-
reactor, 8,212-megawatt Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant that 
burned a transformer, spilled several hundred barrels containing 
radioactive waste and vented some radioactive waste.

Radioactive water and air that leaked is minuscule, far less than 
scientists say will harm humans. But the event is causing Japanese 
officials to take another look at the nation's aggressive effort to 
increase the country's nuclear power generation within a decade in 
order to satisfy 40 percent of electricity needs. Currently, nuclear 
power accounts for almost a third of Japan's electricity.

Within a decade, a U.S. nuclear power renaissance is expected to be 
in full swing. No U.S. nuclear power plants have been ordered since 
1978, the year before the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania.

"The incident in Japan will enter into the debate, but the 
fundamentals that led to the nuclear resurgence are still strong. 
Nuclear power will remain an important piece of the power equation," 
said Junaid Chida, a partner at the law firm of Dewey Ballantine, 
which specializes in project finance.

Those fundamentals include the desire of federal, state and local 
politicians as well as utilities to make the emissions-free energy 
that nuclear power provides. Also, after an estimated $3 billion to 
$4 billion to bring a new reactor on line, it will make relatively 
cheap, reliable baseload power.

Dimitri Nikas, director of utilities and project finance at Standard 
and Poor's, agrees.

"The incident in Japan will ensure that people are acutely aware that 
nuclear generation is not without risks, but I'm not sure it's big 
enough or significant enough to get companies to derail their plans," 
said Nikas.

At least 13 companies, including Southern Co., Duke Energy, Entergy, 
Exelon, FPL Group and Progress Energy are working on applications to 
the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Agency to build new reactors.

Almost all of those are planned at the site of existing plants, which 
Nikas says will make them politically easier to embrace. Also, they 
are mainly in the U.S. Southeast, which is not a hotbed of anti-
nuclear activism.

David Lochbaum, director of the nuclear safety project for the Union 
of Concerned Scientists, said none of the proposed new plants are in 
California or Alaska where earthquakes are most likely.

"The event (in Japan) in itself is not likely to change the new 
reactor designs," said Lochbaum.

As in the Japanese incident, an earthquake near a U.S. reactor -- 
there are four reactors at two sites on California's Pacific Coast -- 
is more likely to damage support systems like transformers than the 
reactor itself. But fires near the reactor could spread to the core, 
Lochbaum said.

The real impact of the Japanese incident is likely to be in the 
public's confidence in nuclear power, Lochbaum said, adding that he 
couldn't predict public response now.

Denise Furey, senior director for global power at Fitch Ratings, 
agreed and pointed out that the Japanese incident may be in the 
distant past by the time new U.S. reactors are popular public debate.

"What would slow down development of these (U.S.) projects is 
environmental groups pushing back," she said. "These plants are so 
far away from being built. Who knows what factors could affect policy 
makers between now and then."

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Sandy Perle 
President
Global Dosimetry Solutions, Inc. 
2652 McGaw Avenue
Irvine, CA 92614

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E-Mail: sperle at dosimetry.com
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