AW: [ RadSafe ] Increase in cancer in Sweden can be traced toChernobyl

[Franz Schönhofer]

Mike,

The physorg website mentioned a research done in 2004 and that Tondel will
soon defend his thesis. I received an electronic copy of the thesis
yesterday, so if you are really interested I can sent it to you and other
RADSAFErs interested. I believe that it does not make much sense to
speculate what the author might have done or intended, but one should read
his publications. The thesis has a very large number of references including
the authors papers. I myself have not found time to read the thesis
carefully, not to speak about my poor knowledge of epidemiology which
prohibits me from judging his findings. Nevertheless I noted even in my
hurry some weak points, which might not be so evident for persons less
acquainted with the Chernobyl accident, its consequences in Europe and the
"non-radioactive" Sweden, including cultural points like reindeer herding. 

The contamination in Sweden was - as all over Europe - extremely
inhomogeneous. In the electronic form of the thesis I received I notice that
there are no tables, no graphs and no maps. I think that this would be
essential in order to describe the geographical distribution of the
contamination and to give the reader an impression about the contamination.
I have spent in the late sixties of last century many summers in Sweden,
working in cellulose and paper factories, mostly in the north of Sweden and
hence I speak fluently Swedish, so I am familiar with the areas and the
counties named in the thesis like Swedish readers will be - but hardly
anybody outside Sweden. Moreover I have been during and long after the
Chernobyl accident in contact with the Swedish Radiation Protection
Institute (Svenska Stralskyddsinstitutet, SSI). The most heavily
contaminated areas in Sweden were (please consult a map!) the areas of
Gaevle (slightly north of Stockholm), the area of Sundsvall (several hundred
kilometers north of Stockholm at the coast, location of a cellulose factory
I have been working at decades ago) and Oestersund almost exactly in the
middle of Sweden. Those areas are  n o t  in the far north of Sweden as
written in the thesis!!!!

The northern areas of Sweden (and Finland and Norway) have been heavily
affected by the atmospheric nuclear bomb tests of the late fifties and very
early sixties of last century, so residual Cs-137 contamination from these
nuclear bomb tests is still large. I do not know, whether this has been
considered by Tondel. As well I have not been able to verify, whether he
distinguishes correctly between external irradiation and internal one. 

I respectfully disagree with your comments on the "nomadic reindeer herders"
of the "far North". What you call a "wrong-headed panic move" of the Swedish
government has to be seen in the context of the European Union, public
opinion and the various green, antinuclear movements. Such decisions were
not made on scientific grounds and will not be done in the future! 

I agree that the Chernobyl accident had a disastrous impact on the reindeer
herders - the Sami-population, but please do not claim, that they have been
forced to convert an "independent active live to living in settlements".
They have done this already decades ago, temporarily accompaning their
reindeer herds. 

Best regards, vaenlig haelsning

Franz  


Franz Schoenhofer, PhD
MinRat i.R.
Habicherg. 31/7
A-1160 Wien/Vienna
AUSTRIA



It would be interesting to see how the study was conducted and what the raw
data looked like.  Off hand I can remember other "studies" that found
"statistically significant" increases do to whatever the researcher chose to
believe was the cause.

In connection with Chernobyl and its effect in the far North there is a
factor that would be difficult, perhaps impossible to account for.  In
response to Chernobyl a lot more attention was focused on a population that
was primarily rural, and some 10% nomadic reindeer herders.  Then Swedish
government, in one of those wrong-headed panic moves so typical of responses
to radiation issues, confiscated and slaughtered most of the reindeer,
because they were eating fallout contaminated vegetation.  The nomads went
from living independent active lives to living in settlements, subsisting on
the dole.  Between the increased ability of satiations to count illnesses
and the effect of lifestyle change (diet and physical activity) and stress
it would be difficult say what a true background rate of illnesses,
including cancer, would be.  And without a background rate it is hard to
know if one is seeing an actual increase.

I am not saying that there has been no cancer increase in connection with
Chernobyl.  I am saying that the more confident a researcher is that he has
found "a small but statistically significant increase" in cancer rates and
that he know just where it came from, the less confident I am that the
researcher is actually letting the data speak for itself.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On Behalf
Of Jim Hoerner
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2007 5:54 PM
To: Know_Nukes at yahoogroups.com
Cc: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Increase in cancer in Sweden can be traced to Chernobyl

Increase in cancer in Sweden can be traced to Chernobyl

The incidence of cancer in northern Sweden increased following the accident
at the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl in 1986. This was the finding of a
much-debated study from Linköping University in Sweden from 2004.

Was the increase in cancer caused by the radioactive fallout from Chernobyl
or could it be explained by other circumstances? New research from Linköping
University provides scientific support for the Chernobyl connection.

"This issue is important because the indicated increased risk may come to
influence the prevailing exposure limits for the population. Enhanced
knowledge of the risks entailed by radioactive radiation is key to work for
radiation safety and makes it possible to prevent diseases," says Martin
Tondel, a physician and researcher in environmental medicine who will soon
be defending his doctoral dissertation Malignancies in Sweden after the
Chernobyl Accident in 1986.

In two studies using different methods, Martin Tondel has shown a small but
statistically significant increase in the incidence of cancer in northern
Sweden, where the fallout of radioactive cesium 137 was at its most intense.

The cancer risk increased with rising fallout intensity: up to a 20-percent
increase in the highest of six categories. This means that 3.8 percent of
the cancer cases up to 1999 can be ascribed to the fallout. This increased
risk, in turn, is 26 times higher than the latest risk estimate for the
survivors of the atom bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, whose exposure was
many times higher.

[This is not credible, IMO.  Someone needs to scrutinize this work, please. 
- JH]

The increase in Tondel's studies came a remarkably short time after the
disaster, since it is usually assumed that it takes decades for cancer to
develop. The dissertation discusses the interpretation of the research
findings from the perspective of the theory of science.

The conclusion is that there is scientific support for a connection between
the radioactive fallout and the increase in the number of cancer cases.  
[That IS credible. - JH]

Source: Linköping University

http://www.physorg.com/printnews.php?newsid=99758918