[ RadSafe ] The thesis about cancer in Sweden and Chernobyl fallout

[Bjorn Cedervall]

It seems like the Subject line has drifted away from the topic discussed 
(DU).

I was present during the thesis defence. The scientific refereeing committee 
accepted the thesis (with the motivation that it was about scientific 
training or something similar) but concluded (everyone in the committee 
agreeing) that they did not agree with the conclusions of the author (that 
Chernobyl fallout probably _caused_ detectable (1278) cancer cases in Sweden 
the years 1988-1999). Or as it is stated at the end of the abstract, page 
six: "Using the Hill criteria..."
- click on the word fulltext at the top to the left.
http://www.diva-portal.org/liu/abstract.xsql?dbid=8886
As you can see, the most controversal sentence - about the Hill criteria - 
only occurs in the pdf file and the paper version of the thesis but not in 
the first version of the abstract as you find it above.

The opponent of the thesis pointed at statistical weaknesses and showed also 
clearly that the conclusion was not reasonable taking into account the 
natural level of gamma radiation (40K in your own body, terrestial and 
cosmic). The most exposed individuals from Chernobyl fallout in northern 
Sweden received accumulated doses in the order of 1 to 10 mSv but those 
above 1 mSv were probably quite few (in order to statistically detect a 
cancer increase at the level of 1 mSv about 1 billion  exposed individuals 
are necessary - using the radiation risk factor which comes from other 
experiences with other dose rates and contexts). When asked about what 
radiation was related to I-131 the defendent could not answer that question.

The story was press released to various media before the thesis defence (I 
am almost sure that BBC had the story around 5 June 2007 - can't find that 
link at the moment but here is an older version:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4028729.stm
- please post comments to whether you heard the story at all last week - and 
if so in what media) - here is one example:
http://www.physorg.com/news99758918.html

My personal interpretation of the event and personal initiative only - if 
anything I have written is wrong or otherwise needs to be modified - that 
will be done ASAP,

Bjorn Cedervall     bcradsafers at hotmail.com

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