[ RadSafe ] New Article: Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack

[Peter Bossew]

Maybe interesting to some:


Michael P. Atkinson, Zheng Cao, Lawrence M. Wein (2008):
Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect 
Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack
Risk Analysis 28 (2) , 353–371
doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01023.x


Abstract

We formulate and analyze an optimal stopping problem concerning a 
terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon 
toward a target in a city center. In our model, the terrorist needs to 
travel through a two-dimensional lattice containing imperfect radiation 
sensors at some of the nodes, and decides at each node whether to 
detonate the bomb or proceed. We consider five different scenarios 
containing various informational structures and two different sensor 
array topologies: the sensors are placed randomly or they form an outer 
wall around the periphery of the city. We find that sensors can act as a 
deterrent in some cases, and that the government prefers the outer wall 
topology unless the sensors have a very low detection probability and 
the budget is tight (so that they are sparsely deployed).


pb

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Peter Bossew 

European Commission (EC) 
Joint Research Centre (JRC) 
Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) 

TP 441, Via Fermi 1 
21020 Ispra (VA) 
ITALY 
  
Tel. +39 0332 78 9109 
Fax. +39 0332 78 5466 
Email: peter.bossew at jrc.it 

WWW: http://rem.jrc.cec.eu.int 
  
"The views expressed are purely those of the writer and may not in any
circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European
Commission."