AW: [ RadSafe ] False alarms: was: NYC permitting of detectors, Grand Canyon

[Clayton Bradt]

Franz,

I think what you are saying is that my 
calculation is bounding.  The actual 
Positive Predictive value would be much 
lower I think, by a couple orders of 
magnitude.  I would  encourage anyone 
else to come up with a more realistic 
estimate. 

I've never seen the Grand Canyon.  I 
envy you!

Clayton

----Original Message----
From: franz.schoenhofer at chello.at
Date: 02/11/2008 17:43 
To: "Clayton Bradt"<dutchbradt at hughes.
net>, <radsafe at radlab.nl>
Subj: AW: [ RadSafe ] False alarms: 
was: NYC permitting of detectors, Grand 
Canyon

Clayton, 

I really appreciate your very clear, 
simple and convincing calculation -
with one exception: Your hypothetical 
assumption of one nuclear WMD (nuclear
bomb) per day moved around in NY-City, 
which would mean that since Sept. 11
many thousands of nuclear bombs would 
have to be transported in NYC!!! Are
there enough bombs available on the 
black market? So the relative number of
false alarms (percentage) would 
actually approach infinity even under 
your
partly theoretical assumptions...