[ RadSafe ] scientific arguments and LNT

[Ludwig E. Feinendegen]

Hi All:

Thanks to Clayton for well placed arguments.  We need a sound theory and are on the way to it.  What we have now as the latest is in the paper I sent out today.  Here, I follow with a slightly earlier paper and its discussion that appeared in the relatively new journal Atoms for Peace - directed to a wider audience than that of radiation biologists and radiologists.
 
All the best, 
Ludwig

Ludwig E. Feinendegen, M.D.
Wannental 45
D - 88131 Lindau
Germany

Tel: +49 8382 75673     




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Clayton J Bradt" <cjb01 at health.state.ny.us>
To: <radsafe at radlab.nl>
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2009 4:38 PM
Subject: [ RadSafe ] scientific arguments and LNT


> 
> On 9 May 2009 Bob Cherry wrote:
> 
> 
> "Physicists call arguments without firm data to support them, "hand-waving
> arguments." A nicer term might be plausibility arguments.
> 
> I believe the LNT enthusiasts and the hormesis supporters both are making
> hand-waving arguments because neither side has definitive data, but both
> sides have plausible data. It will take something definitive to settle the
> argument.
> 
> I learned while studying for certification in 1980 that the sample
> population needed to establish definitive dose effect statistics at
> near-background doses and dose rates approaches or exceeds the world
> population. Unless things have changed, I don't see how the argument will
> ever be settled scientifically.
> 
> If we can't prove either model to be true at these dose and dose rate
> levels, then the choice between models is mostly or completely arbitrary."
> ***************************
> 
> I don't quite agree.  A scientific argument can be had without firm data on
> either side so long as there is a rigorous underlying theory.  For decades
> the only experimental evidence supporting General Relativity was
> Eddington's famous observations during the 1919(?) solar eclipse.  It
> wasn't until recently that people reviewing Eddington's data and methods
> realized that the reported displacement of fixed stars by the sun's
> gravitational field was within the error limits of his method.  But is
> wasn't just the (erroneous) experimental evidence that convinced people
> that General Relativity was correct - it was the rigor of the theory
> itself.  It makes precise, and therefore falsifiable, predictions - and it
> explains physical reality in a more elegant and comprehensive way than was
> previously available.
> 
> In contrast, LNT and the underlying target theory of radiation cancer
> induction, does not generate testable predictions, nor explain how
> radiation causes cancer.  What is really lacking, I think, is a
> comprehensive theory of cancer itself.
> 
> 
> Clayton J. Bradt
> dutchbradt at hughes.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
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