[ RadSafe ] SOME IDEAS ON COMMUNICATING RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC

[Cary Renquist]

Just skimmed it, but appears to have some good ideas for communicating
relative risk...

...
Natural frequencies instead of probabilities

Consider the colorectal cancer example given previously. Only 1 in 24
doctors tested could give the correct answer. The following,
mathematically-equivalent, representation of the problem was given to
doctors:

    Out of every 10,000 people, 30 have colorectal cancer. Of these 30,
15 will have a positive haemoccult test. Out of the remaining 9,970
people without colorectal cancer, 300 will still test positive. How many
of those who test positive actually have colorectal cancer?

Without any training whatsoever, 16 out 24 physicians obtained the
correct answer to this version. That is quite a jump from 1 in 24.
....

SOME IDEAS ON COMMUNICATING RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC | Decision
Science News 
  http://j.mp/g394KH




Cary

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Cary Renquist
crenquist at isotopeproducts.com or cary.renquist at ezag.com