[ RadSafe ] Doubts on Cancer Statistics [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Feb 11 16:12:04 CST 2010

My observations...

Incidence has remained about the same with a slight rise while mortality has declined after 1990.
Incidence has some gyrations which are matched by the data on incidence of prostate cancer suggesting that the overall incidence data are affected by the introduction of prostate screening programs.
Lung cancer mortality declines, as does female mortality from breast cancer.
Note that the US-level data is mortality and only the SEER registries provide incidence data.
Australian data showing similar trends can be obtained from the following site:
http://www.aihw.gov.au/cancer/data/acim_books/index.cfm
(It does take a bit of wading through to get what you might want)

My take-home message...
Cancer detection and treatment works to some effect (as does public education about smoking, etc.)

Peter Thomas

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On Behalf Of Wes Van Pelt
Sent: Friday, 12 February 2010 6:18 AM
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Cc: 'Emilio Martinez'
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Doubts on Cancer Statistics

Radsafers (and other epidemiologists),
As I look at the peak in cancer mortality in 1990, it seems probably related
to cigarette smoking and lung cancer. I plotted lung cancer mortality rate
alone (see link below) and the peak at 1990 is even more evident. So I
suspect a decrease in smoking in 1960-1980 is responsible for the downward
trend in lung cancer after 1990, considering a 20-yer lag time.

http://statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov/historicaltrend/joinpoint.withimage.ph
p?0&9900&999&7599&001&047&00&0&0&0&2&0&1&1#graph

Best regards,  Wes
Wesley R. Van Pelt, PhD, CIH, CHP
Wesley R. Van Pelt Associates, Inc.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On Behalf
Of George Stanford
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2010 1:04 PM
To: Wes Van Pelt
Cc: 'Emilio Martinez'; radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [ RadSafe ] RE: RadSafe ] Doubts on Cancer Statistics

Here are snipped versions of the two long URLs:
< http://snipurl.com/uc7ti >
< http://snipurl.com/uc7qw >

      --- George Stanford

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At 08:31 AM 2/11/2010, Wes Van Pelt wrote:
Emilio,
The peak in cancer mortality at 1990 is quite striking. You are right to ask
the question. The value plotted is cancer mortality per 100,000 residents.
If the average age of residents decreased after 1990 (due to immigration and
births) the graph would go down even if the chance of cancer mortality at
any specific age were constant.  But this is just a guess.

Best regards,  Wes
Wesley R. Van Pelt, PhD, CIH, CHP
Wesley R. Van Pelt Associates, Inc.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On Behalf
Of Emilio Martinez
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2010 8:11 AM
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [Bulk] [ RadSafe ] Doubts on Cancer Statistics

Hello Radsafers, searching for cancer statistics i run across
"http://statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov" where I found a peak in the number
of cancer cases around 1990. Could someone explain the reason of this to me?
shouldn't this behaviour be unsual?

The first one provides a clearer view of what i'm talking about, the second
page was a string-generated one I made to check he tendencies in every
state, although it takes a few seconds to load:

http://statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov/historicaltrend/joinpoint.withimage.ph
p?0&9900&999&7599&001&001&00&0&0&0&2&0&1&6&9901!001!001!00!0!2!0&9902!001!00
1!00!0!2!0&9904!001!001!00!0!2!0&9905!001!001!00!0!2!0&9906!001!001!00!0!2!0
#graph

http://statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov/historicaltrend/joinpoint.withimage.ph
p?0&9900&999&7599&001&001&00&0&0&0&2&0&1&57&9901!001!001!00!0!2!0&9902!001!0
01!00!0!2!0&9903!001!001!00!0!2!0&9904!001!001!00!0!2!0&9905!001!001!00!0!2!
0&9906!001!001!00!0!2!0&9907!001!001!00!0!2!0&9908!001!001!00!0!2!0&9909!001
!001!00!0!2!0&9910!001!001!00!0!2!0&9911!001!001!00!0!2!0&9912!001!001!00!0!
2!0&9913!001!001!00!0!2!0&9914!001!001!00!0!2!0&9915!001!001!00!0!2!0&9916!0
01!001!00!0!2!0&9917!001!001!00!0!2!0&9918!001!001!00!0!2!0&9919!001!001!00!
0!2!0&9920!001!001!00!0!2!0&9921!001!001!00!0!2!0&9922!001!001!00!0!2!0&9923
!001!001!00!0!2!0&9924!001!001!00!0!2!0&9925!001!001!00!0!2!0&9926!001!001!0
0!0!2!0&9927!001!001!00!0!2!0&9928!001!001!00!0!2!0&9929!001!001!00!0!2!0&99
30!001!001!00!0!2!0&9931!001!001!00!0!2!0&9932!001!001!00!0!2!0&9933!001!001
!00!0!2!0&9934!001!001!00!0!2!0&9935!001!001!00!0!2!0&9936!001!001!00!0!2!0&
9937!001!001!00!0!2!0&9938!001!001!00!0!2!0&9939!001!00
1!00!0!2!0&9940!001!001!00!0!2!0&9941!001!001!00!0!2!0&9942!001!001!00!0!2!0
&9943!001!001!00!0!2!0&9944!001!001!00!0!2!0&9945!001!001!00!0!2!0&9946!001!
001!00!0!2!0&9947!001!001!00!0!2!0&9948!001!001!00!0!2!0&9949!001!001!00!0!2
!0&9950!001!001!00!0!2!0&9951!001!001!00!0!2!0&9952!001!001!00!0!2!0&9953!00
1!001!00!0!2!0&9954!001!001!00!0!2!0&9955!001!001!00!0!2!0&9956!001!001!00!0
!2!0#graph

Thanks a lot in advance

_______________________________________________
You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list

Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the RadSafe rules. These can be found at: http://radlab.nl/radsafe/radsaferules.html

For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: http://radlab.nl/radsafe/

***********************************************************************************
Important: This email (including any attachments) is intended only for the use of the
addressee and may contain confidential and / or privileged information.  
If you are not the intended addressee, you are prohibited from relaying on, distributing, disclosing, 
copying or in any other way using any information in this email. If you have received this email in error, 
please notify the sender immediately and erase all copies.
Any opinions expressed in this email are not necessarily held or authorised by Australian Radiation 
Protection And Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA).
Whilst ARPANSA has taken all reasonable steps to ensure this is email is virus free,
it accepts no responsibility and makes no warranty. The recipient should take its own steps to ensure
there is no virus and bears full responsibility for any use.

Australian Radiation Protection And Nuclear Safety Agency
***********************************************************************************