# [ RadSafe ] Gofman on TMI and Chernobyl deaths

KARAM, PHILIP ANDREW.KARAM at nypd.org
Mon May 13 08:58:01 CDT 2013

```Boy, even if you accept his numbers for population dose and accept LNT
at any level of exposure the math still doesn't work out. Using a risk
coefficient of 5% per Sv a dose of 300 rem (3 Sv) gives a 15% chance of
fatal cancer. So (if I remember how to do this, which might not be a
good assumption), instead of 333 cancers we'd have 333 x 15% = 50 fatal
cancers.

But even this is likely an over-estimate since virtually all off-site
dose to exposed individuals was so low, and since his population dose
figure is so high. It brings to mind the ICRP statement that, if the
dose to the most-exposed individual is trivial then the dose to all
individuals must be considered trivial and it's inappropriate to assume
that the collective dose will somehow have an impact. Or to use an
analogy I posted earlier, we can't throw a million one-gram rocks at
everyone in Cleveland and assume that, because the cumulative weight is
a ton, a few people will be crushed.

Andy

-----Original Message-----
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Steven Dapra
Sent: Friday, May 10, 2013 11:22 PM
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Gofman on TMI and Chernobyl deaths

May 10

Gofman claimed a human exposure of
100,000 man-rems from the Three Mile Island
accident.  He then claimed one death per 300
man-rems.  Dividing 100,000 by 300 gives 333
deaths from Three Mile Island --- at least in Gofman's world.

He made this claim in the Foreword to
the 1979 printing of his book "Poisoned
Power."  The Foreword will be found at this link:

To find his specific claim about the
number of deaths, scroll down the page about
two-thirds of the way to the paragraph beginning
"Now we are ready to solve our equation."

For Gofman's claims of deaths resulting
from the Chernobyl accident, see a 1994 interview
with Gofman in "Synapse," the student newspaper
Francisco.  In the interview, Gofman said:

"After Chernobyl, I estimated that there were
going to be 475,000 fatal cancers throughout
Europe - with another 475,000 cancers that are
not fatal. That estimate was based on the dose
released on the various countries of fallout from Cesium-137."