Re: error propagation for % enrichment

[Duane Schmidt <DWS2@nrc.gov>]

Hans,

One method I can think of is to use Monte Carlo methods for the error propagation. If you or someone you work with has one of the simple, spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo software packages (Crystal Ball and @Risk are two), the calculation would be easy, as long as you can write the equation to calculate the enrichment in a form allowed by your spreadsheet program. I do not have knowledge of the enrichment calculations, but I believe this method would be valid, as it is a general method for propagating uncertainties, and is especially useful if there is not an analytical solution to the uncertainty propagation.

Good Luck.

Duane.

Duane W. Schmidt, CHP
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
NMSS/DWM/DCB
dws2@nrc.gov

>>> Hans Honerlah <hansbh1@yahoo.com> 1/5/00 7:42:21 AM >>>
I am attempting to locate a reference that will
provide a method to propagate the error associated
with analytical results from isotopic uranium analysis
and determining percent enrichment.  To be a little
more specific; each uranium (U234/U235/U238)
analytical result has an associated error.  How do
account for this error in determining enrichment?  At
low U235 activity any error associated with the
analytical result significantly changes the percent
enrichment.

I have went through some old chemistry and statistic
books to develop an equation, just wondering if
something specific to this has already been utilized
or published.

Hans Honerlah
Health Physicist
USACE 

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