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RE: Will the LNT fiction kill again?
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2000 17:24:03 -0600 (CST)
Reply-to: radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu
From: "Weiner, Ruth" <rfweine@sandia.gov>
To: Multiple recipients of list <radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu>
Subject: RE: Will the LNT fiction kill again?
The LNT can be used for this kind of "tradeoff analysis" for any kind
of diagnostic x-ray. I think it would be interesting to survey
diagnostic x-ray use to see if there were any correlation with any
kind of cancer.
Clearly only my own opinion
Ruth F. Weiner, Ph. D.
Sandia National Laboratories
MS 0718, POB 5800
Albuquerque, NM 87185-0718
505-844-4791; fax 505-844-0244
rfweine@sandia.gov
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Muckerheide [mailto:jmuckerheide@delphi.com]
Sent: January 25, 2000 12:45 PM
To: Multiple recipients of list
Subject: Will the LNT fiction kill again?
Group,
Here's another uninformed application of the LNT. It has the potential
to result in decisions to avoid mammograms.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Br J Cancer 2000 Jan;82(1):220-6
Radiation risk and mammographic screening of women from 40 to 49 years
of age: effect on breast cancer rates and years of life.
Mattsson A, Leitz W, Rutqvist LE
Oncologic Centre, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the carcinogenic risks
associated with radiation in mass mammographic screening. Assessment
was in terms of breast cancer mortality and years of life for a
hypothetical cohort of 100 000 women. Data were obtained on incidence,
mortality and life expectancy for the female population of Stockholm.
With a screening interval of 18 months at ages 40-49 years, a total
absorbed dose to the breast of 13 mGy per invited woman; and an annual
breast cancer reduction of 25% per year 7 years from screening start,
the net number of years gained was at least 2800. However, using the
highest absorbed dose reported in routine mammographic screening in
Sweden (approximately 3 mGy per view), and the highest reported
radiation risk in the literature, a programme entailing annual
screening with 2 views would require at least a 20% annual reduction
in breast cancer mortality to give a net benefit in both the number of
years of life gained and number of breast cancer deaths avoided. This
observation supports the conclusion that exposures with low absorbed
dose are essential when performing mass screening with mammography
among young women.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Of 1000s of Br J Cancer medical readers, how many think this is just a
'conservative' analysis rather than a fiction? And how many women will
pick up on some report on this "peer-reviewed" assessment of 'risk'?
How many (of either group) will defer mammography in 40s women to
avoid this "risk"? (Of course, perhaps some who know the actual breast
cancer risk data will become better informed about the extent of LNT
fiction? Because they didn't get the DOE report on killing 23 people
due to irradiation by LLW on passing trucks/trains :-)
Regards, Jim
muckerheide@mediaone.net
========================
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Ruth and others:
I think there's a good chance there will be a positive
correlation(probably fairly strong) between dose from diagnostic
x-rays and cancer)but for a different reason than what is implied in
the question. Sick people, esp, chronically ill folks, probably have
considerably more xrays performed on their persons than healthier
folk do.
Charles R. (Russ) Meyer
Email:charles.meyer@tdh.state.tx.us
Phone:(512)834-6688
Fax:(512)834-6654
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Is it as hard to chew with an open mind?, Lord Chesterton.
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information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html