Risk estimate and comparison

[Mr Jo <mjo@scs.unr.edu>]

I did following calculation with students in a graduate level academic class last
year and I plan to continue. I felt that everybody understood the concept of LNT
very well.

Risk Estimate of T Use in US:

The T is a type of pill we take when we have headache.

It is assumed that any amount of T could produce adverse effects in the human body
no matter how small the amount. There is no threshold.

Lethal dose = 100 pills to a person   = 100 pills/death. A physician told me that
about 70 T pills would be a lethal dose (liver toxin) to a person.

Fatal risk factor is 0.01 per pill (0.01 fatal risk per pill).

Lets assume that an average US population takes 10 pills each per year and there
are about 275 million people in the US.

275 million US population x 10 pills/person/year = 2.75 billion person-pill/year

2.75 billion person-pill x 0.01 fatal risk per pill = 27.5 million deaths/year

Is this a reasonable estimate?

This is entirely my personal opinion.
========================================================
Myung Chul Jo, MS, CHP
EH&S, Mail Stop 328
University of Nevada, Reno
Reno, Nevada 89557
(775)784-4540
(775)784-4553 fax
mjo@scs.unr.edu


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