To Cheap to Meter; the Prequel

["D. Kosloff" <dkosloff@ncweb.com>]

Before Lewis L. Strauss uttered his famous phrase, on Sunday, August 1,
1954, the New York Times reported on an AEC Report.  Here is the exact story
from a microfilm copy:

THE A. E. C. ON POWER

In its latest semi-annual report the Atomic Energy Commission gives us the
benefit of what it calls "our preliminary thinking and speculation on the
probable pattern of industrial development and economic benefits that atomic
power plants must face."  Some of this preliminary thinking and speculation
was presented in June by Chairman Strauss of the commission in a statement
filed with the Joint Congressional Committee on Atomic Energy.  His
assumption was that atomically generated energy would be economic if its
cost could be reduced to a figure that lies between 4 and 7 mills a
kilowatt-hour.  There is no prospect that anything like this low cost will
be achieved before 1975.  Shareholders of light and power companies have no
cause to worry, even after 1975, if the hypothetical cost of 4 to 7 mills is
really achieved.
     Projections of the total demand for electricity by 1975 indicate that
about 3,400 billion kilowatt-hours must be available, an increase of some
900 billion kilowatt-hours over the present level.  Privately owned steam
and hydro-electric distribution systems would easily absorb the increase.
In fact they will need all the atomic power they can obtain, considering the
rate at which we are using up our oil and gas reserves.  Hence the
commission sees no "significant dislocations" as atomic power reaches the
market.
     Whether or not all this comes to pass, the commission considers the
availability of low-cost power "critical in maintaining high-employment
levels" for the reason that industrial production cannot increase without
power.  Hence atomic power increases job opportunities.  Though we are not
likely to see atomic power competing with steam-generated electric power
before 1975 the commission ventures to look beyond that date for possible
benefits that cannot be appraised in terms of money.  Who knows [what]
regions that are at present of no economic importance may become the sites
of great industries?  The smokeless metropolis about which we dream is a
possibility.  There is reason to believe  that some day liners will cross
and recross oceans without having to refuel at the end of every voyage.
    Our social institutions will probably remain much as they are, but those
of backward countries that are without fuel are likely to change for the
better.  The commission realizes that there is considerable Jules Verne
romancing in these prophecies in which we may well indulge.  More and more
power is what a healthy economy must have if it is to develop.
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Note:  In 1997 3,494 bllion kilowatt-hours were used in the U.S.
In 1996 electricity production costs were:  fossil 21.25 mills
                                                                     nuclear
20.65 mills

Don Kosloff dkosloff@ncweb.com
2910 Main St. Perry OH 44081

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