[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: Risks of low level radiation - New Scientist Article


Joe Alvarez and I have shown that the influence of "some unknown

cross-level  confounding relationship" is irrelevant for a risk assessment.

See our paper:

Seiler, F.A., and J.L. Alvarez, "Is the' Ecological Fallacy' a Fallacy?" Hum.

Ecol.  Risk  Assess.  6, 921-941 (2000).

Sometimes you wonder what the purpose of epidemiology is really supposed to be.

Is it a science for its own sake or is it a science that is supposed to provide

some basic information for a risk assessment or what? All the discussions about

Bernie's data seem intent on finding a simon-pure cause-effect relationship for

radon (a marginal radon risk!) but is that what we need? I can't really

understand what purpose this is supposed to serve.  When we do a risk assessment

for sub-populations of the US population we need to take into account that 25%

of us do smoke and that the smoking-radon interaction is responsible for most of

the lung cancers, and that is a knowledge that Bernie's data can provide

directly with a minimum of random and systematic errors.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the calculation of the risk for a population

with a different fraction of smokers is going to drown in a flood of error

evaluations.  So, can anybody tell me what the purpose of  an unconfounded

epidemiology study for radon is?

Have a good weekend, all


Jerry Cohen wrote or rather quoted:

> >"Lubin's mathematical analysis that shows that it is

> > theoretically possible that the non-LNT slope observed by Prof. Cohen may

> > be in error without limit as a result of some unknown cross-level

> > confounding relationship"


 " The American Republic will endure until the day Congress

 discovers that it can bribe the Public with the Public's money."

                                       Alexis de Tocqueville

                                       Democracy in America


Fritz A. Seiler, Ph.D.

Sigma Five Consulting

P.O. Box 1709

Los Lunas, NM 87031, USA

Tel.    505-866-5193

Fax.    505-866-5197

e-mail: faseiler@nmia.com



You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To unsubscribe,

send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the text "unsubscribe

radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail, with no subject line.