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RE: radon - and tackling the issues
You haven't read, or perhaps understood, the problem. See the
explanation provided to Les. If you think something is "misleading," let
me know. It's just my take on the failure of radon case-control studies.
And why Iowa is the worst place, despite Field's efforts to relate a
lifetime of radon exposure to house measurements. It just can't work,
and the study is too small to produce a credible, replicable result.
Ray's a great guy, but his forte is HP training, and communication. If
you want an expert on radon health effects try Philippe Duport at U
Ottawa, with 40 years originally focused on the French miners and the
industry, then to Canada, as a regulator, and nor at the university. No
adverse radon effects at low-dose, low dose-rate, at much higher than
You're right about needing to write to the HPJ, etc., but our primary
mission is to urge a questioning attitude and real questions targeted to
a large number of audiences, not least of which is the HP community,
which includes a number highly regarded HPs and researchers. People with
greater expertise on these matters will work toward resolution.
But with Bernie's experience of hundreds of peer-reviewed science papers
over decades, and getting trashed by both the establishment "science"
and parroting from the peanut gallery, I'm not so sure getting a letter
in the HPJ means a lot.
RSH doesn't get named in the science literature. Becker pubs frequently,
with RSH affiliation, but many RSH supporters, formal and informal,
don't and shouldn't. See e.g., the Peter Parsons note and papers just
forwarded, also Don Higson (Aus), Pollycove and Cameron, Feinendegen
(Germany) and Bond, Liu and Wei (China), and Masse and Tubiana (France)
and Mitchel and Boreham (Canada), originally supported by Robley Evans
and Roz Yalow, Harald Rossi and a host of researchers in Japan. (Go to
PubMed for most of them.) Then there's the industry, govt, etc., working
engineers and HPs that have educated themselves, and politicians, etc.
Some of the industry guys may even "go public" some day, but for now
they cower before the rad protectionist/agency 'masters.' :-) We'll
have to see also how our lawsuit against the EPA on the travesty of its
'radionuclides in water' rule (12/00) which will go to briefing in a few
months. We would expect this to get at the equivalent Yuvva Mt rule
also!
Regards, Jim
============
-----Original Message-----
From: Rad health
Sent: Tue 15-Jan-02 2:49 AM
To: Jim Muckerheide; lescrable@hotmail.com; jkotton@usgs.gov
Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
Subject: RE: radon
Jim Muckerheiede,
I believe your postings are intentionally misleading. The Iowa study
did an
excellent job estimating past exposure. They performed an ecologic study
that had positive findings and followed it up with an analytical study
called a case-control study. Even, Ray Johnson, an expert in radon
exposure
analysis thinks the Iowa Study is an outstanding study.
Ray's quote from this site http://www.cheec.uiowa.edu/misc/radon.html
"The Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study, conducted by Drs. R. William Field,
Charles F. Lynch and colleagues represents by far the most substantial
study
of residential radon health effects accomplished to date. By rigorous
analysis of radon exposures for women with lung cancer and matched
controls,
this study has shown a clear association between lung cancer and radon
exposures in homes.
"The Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study, conducted by Drs. R. William Field,
Charles F. Lynch and colleagues represents by far the most substantial
study
of residential radon health effects accomplished to date. By rigorous
analysis of radon exposures for women with lung cancer and matched
controls,
this study has shown a clear association between lung cancer and radon
exposures in homes.
A major advantage of this study was the high radon levels found in Iowa
homes, which showed about a 50% increase in lung cancer risk at the EPA
action level of 4 pCi/L. The Iowa lung Cancer Study is a major milestone
for
confirming lung cancer incidence due to radon exposures as predicted by
the
National Academy of Sciences BEIR VI report. The researchers should be
highly commended for this definitive study showing substantial lung
cancer
risks due to radon exposures in homes."
Raymond Johnson, Certified Health Physicist
Past-President, Health Physics Society
Someone asked you previously that if you feel there is so much wrong
with
the case-control studies, why don't you write a letter-to-the-editor of
the
journal where they are published? That is what Archer, Doll, Field,
Lubin,
Goldsmith, Lynch, and Smith, etc. did regarding their concerns with Dr.
Cohen's work. Yet, the only letter-to-the-editor concerning the Iowa
study
was a letter praising it. Jim, lobbying for your special interest on
the
Radsafe listsev is less than a scientifically rigorous process.
The only semi substantive reply I have seen in the literature concerning
Radiation Science and Health's view why radon is not a health risk is
Dr.
Becker's debate with Dr. Field. It is interesting that the debate is
not
posted at the RS&H website or at least a link to it.
http://www.ntp.org.uk/951-TUD.pdf
Don Smith
=================================================
>From: "Jim Muckerheide" <jmuckerheide@cnts.wpi.edu>
>Reply-To: "Jim Muckerheide" <jmuckerheide@cnts.wpi.edu>
>To: "Les Crable" <lescrable@HOTMAIL.COM>, <jkotton@usgs.gov>
>CC: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>
>Subject: RE: radon
>Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 23:22:57 -0500
>
>Your comment just shows lack of understanding. :-( Your "each
>individual" dose is not valid. You didn't read or understood the
>problem, or arithmetic. Your "individual dose data" doesn't reflect
>individual doses, especially in Iowa where the "low-dose" people live
in
>a high-dose region. So the data is likely near junk since the data base
>is so small. Therefore "case-control" results of this small group near
>random. Do a second replicate in Iowa, you'll get another random answer
>(except that the errors will also tend to the null). This kind of
>non-numerate "argument" seems to be endemic with apologists for rad
>protection and falsification of science.
>
>You aren't close to "quality of data," but that won't stop the
>desperate.
>
>And Dan Krewski produced the BEIR VI travesty!? Simple dissembling
>disinformation to con the politicians. As noted before, honest epi's
>fear for their careers to challenge such crap.
>
>It was especially telling that when the BEIR VI Committee was asked by
>the media at their press conference if any of them had had their homes
>measured for radon, after a long pause one said (think it was Roger
>McClellan) "well my home is in a low radon area -- and I don't smoke."
>
>Your confidence in "the agencies" is rather quaint. You seem to ignore
>the dozens/hundreds of specific actions that suppress programs and
>publication and ignore the data in front of them when they "serve" on
>prestgious committees that reward them well! Are you just uninformed
and
>not very rigorous about science? or ?
>
>Jim
>===
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Les Crable
>Sent: Mon 14-Jan-02 6:52 PM
>To: Jim Muckerheide; jkotton@usgs.gov
>Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
>Subject: radon
>
>
>Jim -
>
>I think you are a bit naive on this issue. Each individual in the whole
>state of Iowa does NOT have a high radon exposure. Look at the Iowa
>paper
>(read beyond the abstract), almost half have radon concentrations below
>150
>Bq/m3. If you were comparing the state of Hawaii to Iowa, you could say
>-
>compared to Hawaii, Iowa has a lot more radon. But, in reality because
>it
>is a case-control study, the study looked at individual exposures among
>a
>group of people. The median exposure is higher for Iowa, and that is
>what
>you want, a nice distribution of exposures. I always thought it made
>sense
>to perform studies of possible toxins where the source strength was the
>highest. And Iowa has the highest source strength to test whether or
>not
>residential radon poses a hazard. It makes no sense to perform a radon
>test
>in a state where there is no radon. It is my understanding no more
>radon
>case-control studies will be funded in the U.S. Iowa and Missouri are
>apparently pooling their studies and then we will have the results of
>the
>National and International poolings. Dan Krewski is pooling the N.
>American
>studies. He is on the Belle advisory comm so he is not one of your so
>called LNT mafia.
>
>When agencies fund case-control studies like the Iowa study they make
>sure
>their sample size has the required power to detect an association if
one
>
>exists. I agree that it is quality of data we should strive for and
not
>
>quantity of data.
>
>Les
>
>
> >From: "Jim Muckerheide" <jmuckerheide@cnts.wpi.edu>
> >To: "Les Crable" <lescrable@hotmail.com>, <jkotton@usgs.gov>
> >CC: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>
> >Subject: RE: Background Radiation Information Sought
> >Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 17:51:07 -0500
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Les Crable
> >
> >Jim,
> >
> >I think Iowa is the best state to perform a radon epidemiology study.
> >
> >You do Not want certain areas high and certain areas low. Maybe for
an
> >ecologic study, but not for a case control study. What you want is a
> >wide
> >range of radon exposures so that you are able to get a dose response
> >relationship. If you look at the Iowa study, that is what they have
-
>a
> >
> >very nice wide distribution of exposures. The distribution is still
>log
> >
> >normal in Iowa, so there are many low measurements.
> >
> >Les Crable
> >
> ><This isn't true. It's even worse in a "case-control" study. You
can't
> >know the actual dose to individuals in any so-called radon
case-control
> >study, when the whole population is exposed to a radon-prone
>environment
> >you know even LESS that the dose to any individual correlates with a
> >house measurement. The only "good" in a "good case-control study"
comes
> >only from limiting one major variable, i.e., knowing the dose to the
> >individuals.
> >
> >When you don't know that, the study is simply a small (too small)
> >statistical correlation study that loses all power and produces
results
> >that vary all over the place, and especially tends to the null, as
the
> >many small case control population studies routinely demonstrate,
many
> >of which are just "junk science" in terms of the validity of the
> >correlation produced (size of population, quality of measurements,
>etc.)
> >No two people in the same house will have equivalent doses. Two
people
> >in two houses that measure the same are less likely to have
equivalent
> >actual doses.
> >
> >So when the condition is further compromised by the fact that people
> >whose houses measure low radon live in a generally high-radon
> >environment, they are not exposed to "low doses" the same way a
person
> >is exposed when they live a a low radon area. A large population
study
> >has the statistical capability to produce a narrow central tendency
to
> >produce a valid, reproducible, effect.
> >
> >This is further compromised by selecting a high-dose state. Since the
> >actual correlation in Cohen's data, and in other substantial studies,
> >shows a reduced slope in the high range, with a large slope in the
low
> >range, the likelihood of finding a credible result in Louisianna is
> >greater than finding a credible result (whether considering the fact
> >that the slope between 1.0 and 1.5 is much greater than between 5.0
and
> >5.5, the percent difference, or the constaint on the lower limit, all
> >will tend to more strongly make a statistical difference evident).
> >
> >In any event, everyone should consider that at the end of the day,
the
> >issue is just a statistical representation of real people with real
> >expsosures, not just semantics about what is a "good" or "better"
type
> >of study. If you want the "best" case-control studies, put people in
> >glass cages and measure real doses, or a "good" case-control study,
>give
> >them personal dosimeters until normal variations are stabilized (a
> >year?) They did this in China.
> >
> >It's not undoable, but researchers don't get support for studies that
> >would tend to definitive results (as said by senior AEC and ORNL
> >officials in '72) validated when Frigerio's study was killed by AEC
in
> >'73, continued by NRC and ERDA/DOE, well known to, and results
> >suppressed by, the ICRP/NCRP/UNSCEAR/BEIR Committees, etc. The '73
> >report results only got "pub'd" because Frigerio got to an IAEA Conf
in
> >'76 because it was specifically on effects of background radiation.
> >There's no "full paper."
> >
> >Cohen's county-level results could have been achieved in the 70's for
> >all background radiation and all cancers, etc. if supported. But
>killed.
> >(It only got started because the licensing people were responding to
>the
> >'71 Calvert Cliffs decision. Wouldn't have been started by the
>radiation
> >researchers who knew better.) And nobody then would "argue" that
> >"ecological studies" don't count. After all, epi was founded solely
on
> >ecological studies. This rhetorical non-science argument was created
> >solely to ignore Cohen's work. Note also that Cohen's work was funded
> >solely by himself. The regulatory research community wouldn't fund
any
> >such study after they dodged the Frigerio bullet!
> >
> >But the Cohen and Colditz 1994 paper puts a real epidemiologist, not
a
> >regulatory apologist, on the record as confirming the epidemiological
> >validity of Cohen's results. Maybe you can do a PubMed search on
> >"colditz g") Of course once the political-science machinery started
to
> >grind, Colditz decided he wanted none of it and refused to make any
> >statements - is that "survival," "cowardice," "moral terpitude?" I
> >suspect that if there were ever a serious and formal consideration of
> >the scientific merits instead of political manipulations, he would
> >speak. We haven't yet found ANYONE in the establishment to put the
> >question on the table.
> >
> >So the real question is: When will this issue get any serious
hearing?
> >Certainly wasn't considered by NCRP in 136, despite assurances and
> >correspondence from Chairman Jackson requiring that the data be
> >considered following our testimony to the NRC. NCRP just held out a
>long
> >time, supported the DOE in fradulently claiming that AEC/DOE nuclear
> >workers were getting radiation-induced cancer (with total silence by
>the
> >HPS and all the others who had for decades said that the workers were
> >well protected to very conservative standards to get political
>attection
> >on "even greater risks from IR than previously suspected"). Even NCRP
> >President Lauri Taylor had said in 1980 that using the LNT was
immoral.
> >
> >Obviously 4 mrem/year can't make any difference to public health, so
>the
> >only purpose is to increase the funding for radiation protection. And
> >once some researchers got new funding through DOE, they became
"silent"
> >partners in questioning the LNT. There will be some useful work, but
>DOE
> >specifically expunged research that would provide good results in a
> >short time in favor of 10 years at $20M/year feeding national lab and
> >establishment people to do essentially useless work, just we had
>advised
> >Domenici when he responded to our case with the new funds.
Fortunately
> >some biology on the subject is getting done despite funding mostly
> >useless rad physics with their "hits" and "bystander effects" ina
>vacuum
> >(intellectual and moral). But again, most don't know better. They
don't
> >understand biology and life processes.
> >
> >Regards, Jim
> >============
> >
> > >From: "Jim Muckerheide" <jmuckerheide@cnts.wpi.edu>
> > >Reply-To: "Jim Muckerheide" <jmuckerheide@cnts.wpi.edu>
> > >To: "Jim Otton" <jkotton@usgs.gov>
> > >CC: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>
> > >Subject: RE: Background Radiation Information Sought
> > >Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 12:16:00 -0500
> > >
> > >Jim O.
> > >
> > >The residential concentration groups are "doses." Is the data set
> >behind
> > >these groups available? It would be interesting to see radon,
> > >terrestrial, and cosmic summed by county. Does this really not
exist
> > >anywhere?
> > >
> > >On the national map it's easy to see that Iowa is the worst state
to
> >try
> > >to find a radon dose-response. There is no low-dose region!
>Eliminates
> > >the meaningful data in Cohen and other more substantial analyses!?
>:-)
> > >
> > >Now Tennessee would be good! :-) Virginia, but ocean/mountain
> > >confounders; Connecticut has the opposite - hi radon on the ocean
>side;
> > >Nebraska giant counties and population density problems? Alabama,
but
> > >disparate? Who would do Louisianna - all counties low!?
> > >
> > >Regards, Jim
> > >============
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Jim Otton
> > >Sent: Mon 14-Jan-02 11:22 AM
> > >To: Jim Muckerheide
> > >Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> > >Subject: RE: Background Radiation Information Sought
> > >
> > >Jim M,
> > >There is no radon dose information at the USGS site. The USGS role
in
> > >radon
> > >studies focused on the geologic causes of variation in indoor radon
> > >levels
> > >and devloping means of estimating the geologic radon potential for
>the
> > >U.S.
> > >In the work performed by the USGS for the EPA in mapping U.S. radon
> > >potential, we focused on developing geologic estimates of the
average
> > >indoor
> > >radon level of residences the U.S. These geologic radon potential
> > >estimates
> > >were published by the USGS in a series of 11 Open-File reports in
>1993
> > >and
> > >1995. These 11 reports covered each of EPA's 10 regions plus an
>extra
> > >report for Guam and Puerto Rico. EPA then used these geologic
> >estimates
> > >to
> > >develop their "Map of Radon Zones"
> > >(http://www.epa.gov/iaq/radon/zonemap.html) in which each county
> > >received a
> > >low, moderate or high (yellow, orange, red) ranking.
> > >
> > >Jim Otton
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Jim Muckerheide [mailto:jmuckerheide@cnts.wpi.edu]
> > >Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 10:59 PM
> > >To: Jim Otton
> > >Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> > >Subject: RE: Background Radiation Information Sought
> > >
> > >
> > >Jim,
> > >
> > >Is there radon dose info on this "radon site?" :-)
> > >
> > >Any way to add terrestrial to radon doses by location? plus cosmic?
> > >
> > >These sources don't address the original question, which would be
of
> > >interest.
> > >
> > >Regards, Jim
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Jim Otton
> > >Sent: Fri 11-Jan-02 12:19 PM
> > >To: BERNARD L COHEN; Dave Derenzo
> > >Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> > >Subject: RE: Background Radiation Information Sought
> > >
> > >Dave, Bernard, and all,
> > >The terrestrial gamma component to dose has been estimated for the
>U.S.
> > >by
> > >Joe Duval (USGS, Reston, VA). A map showing that dose and related
>maps
> > >showing the apparent concentrations (in ppm or percent) of the U,
Th,
> > >and K
> > >components of that dose can be found at
> > >http://sedwww.cr.usgs.gov:8080/radon/DDS-9.html or
> > >http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/radon/radonhome.html These maps are part
of
> > >the
> > >USGS' radon webpage. These maps are derived from the NURE aerorad
> > >dataset,
> > >the cosmic-source gamma component was eliminated (upward-looking
> > >crystals
> > >were used in the survey).
> > >
> > >Jim Otton
> > >U.S. Geological Survey
> > >Environmental Geology of Radionuclides
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> > >[mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu]On Behalf Of BERNARD L
>COHEN
> > >Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 7:55 AM
> > >To: Dave Derenzo
> > >Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> > >Subject: Re: Background Radiation Information Sought
> > >
> > >
> > > My paper "Indoor radon maps of the United States" might be
> > >useful,
> > >since radon is the dominant contributor to doses from natural
> >radiation,
> > >and it varies much more than does the gamma ray background
radiation.
> > >
> > >On Fri, 11 Jan 2002, Dave Derenzo wrote:
> > >
> > > > Dear Radsafers,
> > > >
> > > > In one of my training classes, I use a very old slide of a US
map
> >with
> > > > average background levels for each state. The slide says the
>source
> > >of
> > >the
> > > > data was EPA. This slide does not include the radon
contribution
>to
> > >the
> > > > ede. I would like to update this slide, but have had no luck in
> > >finding
> > > > more recent information. Can anyone point me to a reference
that
> >has
> > >this
> > > > information on a state by state basis? I have already tried
NCRP
> >94,
> > >but
> > > > unless I missed something, this information is not included. A
> >search
> > >of
> > > > the EPA web site also was not productive. Any help would be
> > >appreciated.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Dave Derenzo, RSO
> > > > University of Illinois at Chicago
> > > >
> > > >
> >
>
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