|
"The Yucca Mountain EIS
analyzes what we called the "maximum reasonably foreseeable accident" --
an accident that has a conditional probability (conditional on there being an
accident at all) of 1E-7 or greater"
Ruth,
No matter how you slice it, the
"maximum reasonably foreseeable accident" (MRFA) is largely dependant
upon the imagination of the analyst. Considering 1E-7 probabilities there
is not, nor can there be any experience to guide judgment. The
probability of a meteoric impact that destroys the entire planet may
be higher than that.
If I can use 1E-7
probabilities, and you tell me the consequence you want, I will give
you a scenario to achieve that result. The determination of MRFA depends
primarily on who happens to do the forseeing.
|