[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: Not using LNT to calculate risk does not mean there is no risk.



John and Ted,
 
Even though I try to stay away from this kind of thing, I sat on enough working groups and technical subcommittees to know that the focus of these is on:
 
  1. Arriving at a consensus. And
  2. making sure that consensus is acceptable to the customers.
 
Science is often considered a "technicality".
 
We have to keep that in mind when we read these reports. A statement that populations exposed to radiation are usually healthier than others is a simple, factual, scientific observation.
 
A conclusion that it is not possible to reject LNT with 100% certainty, because some cellular or fruit fly data seems to support it, is a subjective judgment call, designed to facilitate consensus and make the conclusion palatable to the customers. How can you go wrong by saying: "Better safe than sorry."?
 
I don't see a giant LNT conspiracy and I don't blame people who sit on committees for putting some motherhood and apple pie into their conclusions. We do however have to recognize that health physics probably has more inertia than any other scientific discipline and things take time. The HPS position statement, which says that multiplying trivial individual doses by huge populations is nothing but intellectual masturbation (I'm paraphrasing here), is a huge and courageous step forward. We should point this out every chance we get.
 
If government agencies were to adopt current thought (the HPS statement), most of the dirty bomb and DU nonsense would simply go away. We could get on with things, such as figuring out the true dose response, preventing radiological terrorism and identifying people who may be sensitive to radiation, so they can be protected.
 
A happy, healthy and peaceful New Year to all on the list.
 
Kai
 
http://www.gammawatch.com
and http://www.eic.nu
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, December 26, 2002 2:52 PM
Subject: RE: Not using LNT to calculate risk does not mean there is no ri sk.

Ted,
I think we should be clear that NCRP Report 136 concludes studies of biological lesions, which may be precursors of cancer, prevent an exclusion of the LNT dose-response relationship.  Further, the epideniological data "suggests" that for some types of cancers there may be no departure from the LNT above the of background radiation levels, and that many of these stuides are inconclusive.  It is further stated that there is no conclusive evidance to reject the LNT, but at very low doses it may not be possible to prove or disprove the LNT.
 
This is what the report says.

-- John
John P. Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  jenday1@msn.com

-----Original Message-----
From: Ted Rockwell [mailto:tedrock@CPCUG.ORG]
Sent: Tuesday, December 24, 2002 10:39 AM
To: BLHamrick@AOL.COM; jrcamero@facstaff.wisc.edu; radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
Cc: jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET
Subject: RE: Not using LNT to calculate risk does not mean there is no risk.

Barbara:
 
I think you're on a wrong, or at least non-productive, track.  The fact is, that LDR does NOT produce an additional risk.  Most evidence indicates that it reduces the risk of cancer and of shorter longevity.  That's what the data say.  I don't have any data on reindeer tramplings, but I do have data on LDR.  Even NCRP-136, the latest proclamation on LNT, states on page 6, and in the news release on it issuance, that most populations exposed to LDR do not show increased cancer and most show decreased cancer.  That's right in the report. 
 
The fact that they then recommend using LNT anyway is another issue.  But they do not claim that the data show an increased risk from LDR.  We must keep clear on that point.
 
 . . .