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RE: Not using LNT to calculate risk does not mean there is no risk.



Phillippe,
I do not know what this has to do with my comments about the NCRP report.  But I think we both appreciate the volume of data that is available and what it says and doesn't say.  Since I am not an epidemiologist, I would not attempt to correlate cancer rates and radiation exposure based on the data you supplied.  (Would you?)  I feel that there are too many confounding factors.  Particularly when you consider that incident rate to due to low doses of radiation would be difficult to measure above the natural incident rate of 25%.  I don't think the numbers alone will give the answer, as "the devil is in the details."
 
Philosophically, I think radiation is a weak carcinogen, and effect can only be observed at higher dose rates or with very large populations that are carefully matched.  Or by those who want to believe that radiation is a significant risk.  There are certainly other weak carcinogens in our environment that get hyped in the news, but we never hear of again.  Many of the things we do everyday, such as driving a car, crossing the street, etc., have risks.  Whether we should have regulations that protect us against such risks is a challenging issue.  (I certainly don't think so.  But I don't make the laws.)
 
By the way, you say that the annual dose in Denver is more than half of the the dose limit for radiation workers.  That would be 2,500 mrem (25 mSv).  My understanding is that the annual dose rate in Denver is about twice the general population dose, or about 900 mrem (9 MsV).
 
Have a good weekend.
 

-- John
John P. Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  jenday1@msn.com

 
-----Original Message-----
From: Philippe Duport [mailto:pduport@uottawa.ca]
Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 12:00 PM
To: Jacobus, John (NIH/OD/ORS); 'Jerry Cohen'; 'Ted Rockwell'; BLHamrick@AOL.COM; 'John Cameron'; radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
Subject: RE: Not using LNT to calculate risk does not mean there is no risk.

John,

 

Are low doses harmful?  The USA all cancers and lung cancer maps are the negative images of both the gamma radiation and radon maps.  Is such a consistent contrast due to chance alone?  One can accept statistical fluctuations in some states, but in all states?  Statisticians, please tell us what is the probability for this to be due to chance alone in virtually all US states. 

 

John, would agree to live in Denver, with annual doses more than half the annual dose limit for radiation workers?  Any nuclear facility with such dose rates lasting for a whole life would be evacuated, don’t you think?  Should Denver and all similar places in world be evacuated?

 

Cancer map:

http://www.dceg.cancer.gov/cgi-bin/atlas/mapview2?direct=acccwm70

 

Lung cancer map:

http://www.dceg.cancer.gov/atlas/download/pdf2/lun-maps.pdf

 

Gamma radiation map:

http: //www.epa.gov/iaq/radon/zonemap.html ; http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/radon/DDS-9.html

 

Radon map:

http://www.epa.gov/iaq/radon/zonemap.html

 

Happy new year to all,

. . .