Re: Sydney Morning Herald says 5000 died of radiation at Chernobyl

["Richard L. Hess" <lists@richardhess.com>]

At 11:57 AM 5/8/2003 -0700, Otto G. Raabe wrote:

>At 10:03 AM 5/8/03 -0700, Vernig, Peter G. wrote:

> >Group,

> >

> >"One of the four reactors at Chernobyl exploded on April 26, 1986, after a

> >safety test went wrong. About 5000 people have died as a result of the

> >accident, many of them within days of being exposed to high radiation as

> >they tackled the ensuing fire.

>************************************************

>May 8, 2003

>

>Besides the early worker deaths, UNSCEAR calls attention to about 2000

>thyroid cancer cases, but thyroid cancer is not usually fatal. They found

>no increase in leukemia or indication of other cancer. More than likely,

>this 5000 deaths is a mathematical estimate based on some LNT risk model

>rather an actual body count.





Dear Dr. Raabe,



Can this also be used to help disprove LNT and support Dr. B. Cohen's case? 

Probably not scientific enough, but when estimates of 5000 deaths are made 

and the result turns out to be less than 1% of the estimate, then heck, 

there might be something wrong with the basis for the estimate?



If we're seeing fewer than 50 deaths where 5000 might have been 

expected...ahhh, what's two orders of magnitude among friends?



Cheers,



Richard



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