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Re: Chernobyl thyroid doses ?
- To: Franta, "Jaroslav; Radsafe" <"Jaroslav; Radsafe">
- Subject: Re: Chernobyl thyroid doses ?
- From: Andrew, McEwan
- Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2003 04:26:42 -0600
Chernobyl thyroid doses ?Jaro
Annex I of UNSCEAR 2000 gives information on rates of thyroid cancers after doses to the thyroid, including the Swedish diagnostic study.
Dr. Jaworowski in his comparison with "30 000 Swedish patients diagnosed with 131-I, {states there was ) no increase but a deficit of thyroid cancers was found."
According to UNSCEAR, for 2408 persons aged under 20 (and less than 1 % were under 10) out of 34000 included in the Swedish diagnostic study, 3 thyroid malignancies occurred compared with 1.8 expected (this was not significant). Overall the SIR (Table 28) was 1.35 (95% CI 1.05-1.71), but there was no indication of a dose-response trend.
Paragraph 240 (p.341) discusses the influence of screening and other selection effects on the number of thyroid cancer cases observed in children after Chernobyl, concluding that I-131 from the reactor "clearly plays a major role". However, "the level of risk is not yet well quantified" (para 250).
Andrew McEwan