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Re: Study Links Smog Increases to Urban U.S. Deaths
No, the same is NOT true for "all such studies up to and including the relationship between smoking and cancer." Epidemiology is well-developed science, and normally (as in the case of AIDS and, for that matter, lung cancer)begins with observation of a disease or adverse health effect that is associated -- correlated -- with one or more putatively causative factors. The normal protocol is to investigate these correlation to determine the cause. The elucidation of the role of body fluid transfer and isolation of the HIV virus in AIDS epidemiology is a classic example: AIDS symptoms were first associated with male homosexual sex practices, then the correlation widened to include surgery that involved blood transfusions, then was found in females and infants, leading to blood and body fluids as the transmitting agent, and finally to isolation of the virus and its establishment as a causative agent. The association between lung cancer and smoking, and the even stronger corr!
el!
ation between emphysema and smoking, has followed a similar path, though the actual causative agents have yet to be isolated. What exists in this case are strong correlations.
These correlations are way stronger than between air pollution and death because the lung cancer and emphysema sufferers are the ones who actually smoked the cigarettes. Also, I might point out that knowledgeable people do not say "smoking causeslung cancer" but "smoking is strongly correlated with lung cancer, and therefore greatly increases the risk."
In the air pollution studies there has never been convincing evidence tying the affected individuals, and only the affected individuals, to the pollutants: living in a city with polluted air does not mean that the identified individuals are necessarily downwind of the smoketacks nor that their inhalation of polluted air is more than that of people who aren't apparently affected.
What the cited air pollution studies (and some radon studies!) do is sort of backwards epidemiology: we know polluted air is bad, so let's find some polluted cities and compare the death rates, or illness rates, with those in less polluted cities. That's where ignoring confounding factors becomes important.
Ruth
Ruth F. Weiner
ruthweiner@aol.com
505-856-5011
(o)505-284-8406
In a message dated 11/30/2004 4:41:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, "jjcohen" <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET> writes:
>Because I can think of more possible confounding factors than
>they could have had the time or money to consider. The same would
>likely be true for all such studies up to and including the
>relationship between smoking and cancer.
> However. I suspect
>that the study in question began with a conclusion and then
>selected analyses supporting that conclusion or any other
>conclusion that might have been conducive to further funding..
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: John Jacobus <crispy_bird@yahoo.com>
>To: jjcohen <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET>; Flood, John <FloodJR@NV.DOE.GOV>; 'Susan
>Gawarecki' <loc@icx.net>; RadSafe <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>
>Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 9:39 AM
>Subject: Re: Study Links Smog Increases to Urban U.S. Deaths
>
>
>> How do you know that the study did not adjust for
>> confounding factors? Are you skeptical or dismissive?
>>
>> --- jjcohen <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET> wrote:
>>
>> > From what I've learned on Radsafe, it is clear that
>> > this study should be
>> > discredited since it does not account for possible
>> > confounding factors such
>> > as:
>> > Radon levels, pollen counts, beer consumption,
>> > sexual frequency, atmospheric
>> > pressure, Dow-Jones averages, astrological signs,
>> > etc., etc. etc, etc.------
>> >
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: Flood, John <FloodJR@NV.DOE.GOV>
>> > To: 'Susan Gawarecki' <loc@icx.net>; RadSafe
>> > <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>
>> > Sent: Monday, November 29, 2004 1:36 PM
>> > Subject: RE: Study Links Smog Increases to Urban
>> > U.S. Deaths
>> >
>> >
>> > > OK, I'll bite on this one.
>> > >
>> > > "Ground-level ozone typically increases when
>> > temperatures rise."
>> > >
>> > > AND
>> > >
>> > > "this study provides strong evidence of short-term
>> > effects of ozone on
>> > > mortality," said Francesca Dominici, an author of
>> > the study."
>> > >
>> > > Have they found a relationship between ozone
>> > concentration and the
>> > > short-term mortality rate, or have they actually
>> > found a relationship
>> > > between temperature and the short-term mortality
>> > rate, where the ozone
>> > > concentration is a surrogate measure for
>> > temperature changes?
>> > >
>> > > Bob Flood
>> > > Nevada Test Site
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > From: Susan Gawarecki [mailto:loc@icx.net]
>> > > Sent: Monday, November 29, 2004 12:04 PM
>> > > To: RadSafe
>> > > Subject: Study Links Smog Increases to Urban U.S.
>> > Deaths
>> > >
>> > > Imagine the outcry if nuclear power could be
>> > linked to even a fraction
>> > > of this number of deaths annually.
>> > >
>> > > Susan Gawarecki
>> > >
>> > > Study Links Smog Increases to Urban U.S. Deaths
>> > > http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=398
>> > > November 17, 2004 By Michael Conlon, Reuters
>> > >
>> > > CHICAGO - Increases in air pollution caused by
>> > cars, power plants and
>> > > industry can be directly linked to higher death
>> > rates in U.S. cities, a
>> > > study said Tuesday.
>> > >
>> > > Reducing such ozone pollution by about 35 percent
>> > on any given day could
>> > > save about 4,000 lives a year across the country,
>> > researchers at the
>> > > Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
>> > said.
>> > >
>> > > The conclusion came from a look at 95 urban areas
>> > where about 40 percent
>> > > of the U.S. population lives, comparing spikes in
>> > ozone pollution there
>> > > with death rates from 1987 to 2000.
>> > >
>> > > Ground-level ozone typically increases when
>> > temperatures rise. While
>> > > short-term increases have been recognized as
>> > causing jumps in hospital
>> > > admissions, especially among those with chronic
>> > respiratory problems,
>> > > there have been inconsistent results from studies
>> > tying them to
>> > > mortality rates, the authors said.
>> > >
>> > > "By linking day-to-day variations in ambient ozone
>> > levels and daily
>> > > number of deaths in each of the urban areas, and
>> > pooling the results
>> > > across the 95 urban areas, this study provides
>> > strong evidence of
>> > > short-term effects of ozone on mortality," said
>> > Francesca Dominici, an
>> > > author of the study.
>> > >
>> > > "This is one of the largest ozone pollution
>> > studies ever conducted,"
>> > > added Michelle Bell, the lead author. "This
>> > actually underestimates the
>> > > total impact of ozone on mortality, because it
>> > only captures the
>> > > mortality impact associated with high ozone levels
>> > in the past few days,
>> > > not the impact associated with a lifetime exposure
>> > to high ozone
>> > > levels," she said.
>> > >
>> > > "This reduction of ozone is modest given available
>> > technology," she added.
>> > >
>> > > The government-financed study, published in this
>> > week's Journal of the
>> > > American Medical Association, found that an
>> > increase of 10 parts per
>> > > billion in ozone pollution in the previous week
>> > was associated with an
>> > > increase of 0.52 percent in the daily death rate
>> > and specifically with a
>> > > 0.64 percent increase in cardiovascular and
>> > respiratory-related deaths.
>> > >
>> > > People aged 65 to 74 had a slightly higher
>> > increase in the death rate,
>> > > at 0.70 percent.
>> > >
>> > > The 10 parts per billion increase would correspond
>> > to an additional 319
>> > > annual premature deaths in New York City and 3,767
>> > premature deaths
>> > > annually for the other urban communities, the
>> > study concluded.
>> > >
>> > > Ozone pollution can be reduced by lowering energy
>> > consumption through
>> > > such things as car pooling and using public
>> > transportation.
>> > >
>> > > The authors said the 10 parts per billion figure
>> > chosen a unit for the
>> > > study has no special significance in itself other
>> > than that it helps
>> > > demonstrate that higher ozone is associated with
>> > higher mortality.
>> > >
>> > > While ground-level ozone is considered a hazard
>> > stratospheric ozone is
>> > > not because it helps protect the Earth from
>> > harmful solar rays.
>> > >
>> > > Source: Reuters
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> >
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>>
>> =====
>> +++++++++++++++++++
>> "That government is the strongest of which every man feels himself a
>part."
>> Thomas Jefferson
>>
>> -- John
>> John Jacobus, MS
>> Certified Health Physicist
>> e-mail: crispy_bird@yahoo.com
>>
>>
>>
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--
Ruth F. Weiner
ruthweiner@aol.com
505-856-5011
(o)505-284-8406
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