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Re: AW: Denver, BEWARE!



Since the correlation between background radiation and altitude is not 

perfect, you could test your hypotheses by stratification.



For example, assume two factors (call them A and B) are both somewhat 

correlated with cancer (C). If your think that A is the cause of C and B is 

only related to C because B is correlated to A, then you would expect that:



1.    The correlation between B and C disappears once you stratify by 

constant values of A. And

2.    The correlation between A and C remains once you stratify by constant 

values of B.



If your analysis shows anything else, you have to question your data or your 

theory.



If these relationships are observed, you have not proven shown that A is the 

true cause (C could be caused by a factor D that correlates with A and not 

with B), but you have shown that B cannot be the true cause. The next step 

would be to stratify by D. You repeat until you have rejected all other 

plausible hypotheses.



Regards,

Kai



----- Original Message ----- 

From: "jjcohen" <jjcohen@prodigy.net>

To: "Kai Kaletsch" <eic@shaw.ca>; <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 4:07 PM

Subject: Re: AW: Denver, BEWARE!





> Since background radiation levels increase with increasing altitude, if 

> one

> believes in LNT,

> cancer incidence should also increase so that any decrease in cancer 

> occurs

> despite the

> increased radiation levels.  If you believe in hormesis, the decreasing

> cancer incidence

> with altitude might be due either to increasing radiation, or decreasing

> oxygen, or both.

> Jerry

>

>

>

> ----- Original Message -----

> From: Kai Kaletsch <eic@shaw.ca>

> To: jjcohen <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET>; <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

> Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 12:51 PM

> Subject: Re: AW: Denver, BEWARE!

>

>

>> I wonder if the inverse relationship between altitude and cancer 

>> incidence

>> survives after stratifying by background radiation or radon.

>>

>> The inverse relationship between altitude and cancer as well as the

> inverse

>> relationship between background radiation and cancer are factual

>> observations. The question of the cause seems to still be open.

>>

>> Kai

>>

>> ----- Original Message -----

>> From: "jjcohen" <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET>

>> To: "Bradshaw, Keith" <keith.bradshaw@niras.co.uk>;

>> <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

>> Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 12:36 PM

>> Subject: Re: AW: Denver, BEWARE!

>>

>>

>> > Several years ago, Daniel Koshland, chairman of AAAS & editor  of

>> > SCIENCE,

>> > published an article implicating oxygen as a mild carcinogen. In this

>> > article, he noted the inverse relationship between altitude and cancer

>> > incidence and postulated that increased oxygen tension increased levels

> of

>> > free radicals which tend to have  carcinogenic effects.[That is why

>> > dietary

>> > anti-oxidants, such as vitamin E are recommended for avoiding cancer).

> Of

>> > course, OTOH, oxygen is necessary for life. Many people have trouble

> with

>> > the concept that the same substance can simultaneously cause both

>> > beneficial

>> > and harmful effects. That is likely that is why Radiation Hormesis has

>> > such

>> > problems gaining acceptance.

>> >

>> >

>> > ----- Original Message -----

>> > From: Bradshaw, Keith <keith.bradshaw@niras.co.uk>

>> > To: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

>> > Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 9:02 AM

>> > Subject: RE: AW: Denver, BEWARE!

>> >

>> >

>> >> >>When I'm a mile high, I breathe harder than at sea level, so I

>> >> >>naturally

>> >> >>thought that the body makes up for the thinner air by trying to

> inhale

>> >> >>more of it.

>> >>

>> >> >I hear people say the body makes up for the thinner air by making 

>> >> >more

>> > red

>> >> >blood cells. (It takes a few days to adapt.) The implication is: we

>> >> >don't

>> >> >inhale a larger volume, but I have never seen any data. I would

>> > appreciate

>> >> >a reference to real data, if anyone can provide it.

>> >>

>> >> My theory:

>> >> The haemoglobin oxygen saturation stays pretty constant down to about

> 14%

>> >> oxygen, or the equivalent in altitude, then it falls away quickly.

> Once

>> > you

>> >> are in this steeply falling region of the curve, the actual tissue

>> >> concentration of oxygen will be significantly reduced.  The 

>> >> haemoglobin

>> > acts

>> >> as a buffer for oxygen concentration in the tissues.

>> >>

>> >> I think the real issue is the oxygen tension or partial pressure.  I

>> > suppose

>> >> you could argue any increased number of red blood cells, as a result 

>> >> of

>> >> adaptation at altitude, would deliver the same oxygen to the tissues,

> but

>> >> perhaps that only happens when the tissues demand it.  Irrespective of

>> >> the

>> >> actual amount of haemoglobin, the saturation curve is the same shape.

>> >>

>> >> If this is the correct way of looking at it, that means there is

>> >> significantly less oxygen-generated free radical damage at altitude.

>> >> This

>> >> more than makes up for the increased cosmic ray dose, possibly

> explaining

>> >> the longevity of people who live up mountains.

>> >>

>> >> Perhaps we need a proper physiologist to comment !!

>> >>

>> >> Personal views only

>> >>

>> >> keith.bradshaw@niras.co.uk

>> >>

>> >>

>> >> web:  www.niras.co.uk

>> >>

>> >>

>> >>

>> >> NNC's UK Operating Companies : NNC Holdings Limited (no. 3725076), NNC

>> > Limited (no. 1120437), National Nuclear Corporation Limited (no.

> 2290928),

>> > STATS-NNC Limited (no. 4339062) and Technica-NNC Limited (no. 235856).

>> > The

>> > registered office of each company is at Booths Hall, Chelford Road,

>> > Knutsford, Cheshire WA16 8QZ except for Technica-NNC Limited whose

>> > registered office is at Banchory Business Centre, Hill of Banchory

>> > Business

>> > Park, Burn O' Bennie Road, Banchory, Aberdeenshire, AB31 5ZU.  NNC's

> head

>> > office and principal address is Booths Hall and the switchboard number

> is

>> > 01565 633800.  The NNC website is www.nnc.co.uk

>> >>

>> >> Any request, advice, information or opinion in this message which does

>> >> not

>> > relate to the business of any of the above companies is not authorised

> by

>> > any of the above companies.  Where this message does so relate,  it is

>> > sent

>> > by the relevant company (as above) and is confidential and intended for

>> > the

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>> > is

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> NNC

>> > system manager by email at eadm@nnc.co.uk.

>> >>

>> >>

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