[ RadSafe ] Nuclear is key to energy future

[Jose Julio Rozental]

Jose Julio Rozental
joseroze at netvision.net.il
Israel




http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/04/28
/EDGK6CGE1B1.DTL

San Francisco Chronicle
PEN FORUM
Nuclear is key to energy future
John Ritch

Thursday, April 28, 2005


In the current debate over the energy bill, one important factor is being
all but ignored: A global renaissance in nuclear energy is gaining momentum,
and it could have greater implications than any of the other proposed
methods for dealing with our energy problems.
Some 440 civil nuclear reactors, in 30 countries comprising two-thirds of
the world's population, produce 16 percent of the world's electricity. Under
current plans, these nations will construct several hundred more reactors by
2030.
China and India will lead the way, but the expansion will be broad-based.
Nuclear power will also extend to new countries as diverse as Poland,
Turkey, Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, nuclear "phaseouts" in countries
such as Italy and Germany seem sure to be reversed.
Around the world, there is a new realism about nuclear energy, a recognition
of its essential virtue: its capacity to deliver power cleanly, safely,
reliably and on a massive scale. This thinking is eclipsing old-school
anti-nuclear environmentalism.
Increasingly, thoughtful environmentalists see anti-nuclearism as
counterproductive. They worry not about the growth of nuclear energy but
about the likelihood that it is not growing rapidly enough to produce the
clean- energy revolution the world urgently needs.
Carbon fuel emissions -- 900 tons each second -- continue unabated, even as
science warns that we are fast reaching a point of irreversible global
warming with consequences for sea levels, species extinction, epidemic
disease, drought and severe weather events that will disrupt all
civilization.
To avert climate catastrophe, greenhouse emissions must be reduced over the
next 50 years by 60 percent -- even as population growth and economic
development are combining to double or triple world energy consumption.
Every authoritative energy analysis points to an inescapable imperative:
Humankind cannot conceivably achieve a global clean-energy revolution
without a rapid expansion of nuclear power to generate electricity, produce
hydrogen for tomorrow's vehicles and drive seawater-desalination plants to
meet a fast- emerging world water crisis.
This reality requires a tenfold increase in nuclear energy during the 21st
century. Fortunately, advances in technology and practice can facilitate
this expansion by meeting legitimate public concerns:
-- Safety: In the two decades since Chernobyl, the global nuclear industry
has built an impressive safety record that draws on 12,000 reactor- years of
practical experience. A network of active cooperation on operational safety
now links every nuclear power reactor worldwide.
-- Arms proliferation: Illicit weapons programs of rogue regimes pose an
ever-present risk. But strong, universal safeguards can ensure that civil
nuclear facilities do not increase that risk. Security for the environment
and against terrorism need not conflict.
-- Cost: Steady reductions in operational and capital costs have already
made nuclear energy highly competitive. Once governments begin to impose a
real price on environmental damage -- through emissions trading or carbon
taxes -- the balance will tilt decisively toward nuclear.
-- Waste: In truth, waste is nuclear power's greatest comparative asset.
Unlike carbon emissions, the volume is minimal and can be reliably contained
and managed. For a half-century, the civil nuclear industry has safely
stored and transported all end products from electricity generation. For
long-term storage, a scientific consensus favors deep geological
repositories. Governments worldwide must follow the lead of Finland, Sweden,
the United States and France by moving to construct such sites.
The scope of the environmental crisis requires that governments accelerate
the nuclear renaissance. One essential element will be a comprehensive
post-Kyoto treaty on climate. It must include all major nations and yield a
steady, long-term contraction in global emissions. The key is an
emissions-trading mechanism that yields efficiency in clean-energy
investment and a net flow of investment from north to south. This economic
assistance will be the most cost-effective in history if it prevents the
globally destructive greenhouse emissions that will otherwise occur in the
developing world.
Another key is investment. Full-scale nuclear investment is still impeded by
the absence of carbon penalties, the short-term bias of deregulated energy
markets and the fact that 21st-century nuclear reactors have not yet
achieved economies of scale. Governments must prime the pump using start-up
aids, such as loan guarantees and tax credits for first-of-a-kind
engineering costs.
We need multinational investment, too. Today the major U.N. development
institutions reflexively embrace unscientific prejudice while the
International Atomic Energy Agency works alone to promote the peaceful uses
of nuclear energy. Governments must now direct the World Bank and the U.N.
Development and Environment Programs to pursue a clean-energy vision with
nuclear power in a central role.
Technology today is spurring a growth in world population and energy
consumption that jeopardizes the future of our biosphere. Wisely used,
modern technology can also be our salvation.

John Ritch, director general of the World Nuclear Association, was U.S.
ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency and other U.N. agencies
in Vienna from 1993 to 2001. This commentary appeared originally in the
Washington Post.