[ RadSafe ] An ounce of prevention

[Gerry Blackwood]

An ounce of prevention
At a time when cooperative threat reduction desperately needs to expand, its programs are instead at risk. 

By Kenneth Luongo and William Hoehn
March/April 2005  pp. 28-35 (vol. 61, no. 2) © 2005 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

he cooperative threat reduction (CTR) programs operating in Russia and other former Soviet states have been an unprecedented nonproliferation success. [1]  But the threat reduction agenda now faces a potential crisis driven by mounting unsolved problems and lingering policy disputes. If new agreements are not reached and greater flexibility is not introduced soon, major elements of the agenda could be derailed.

Threat reduction--securing and eliminating weapons and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) materials--is a unique post-Cold War tool, filling the gap between diplomacy and negotiation on the one hand and sanctions and military action on the other.

Since 1992, the United States has provided about $10 billion for the dismantling of hundreds of ballistic missiles, the deactivation of thousands of nuclear weapons, and the elimination or securing of enough material for thousands of additional bombs. In addition, tens of thousands of scientists and workers with WMD-related knowledge have been provided temporary work on civilian projects.

In 2002, the Group of Eight (G-8) nations made a major commitment under the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction to not only continue, but also to expand, threat reduction activities. The G-8 pledged $20 billion for related activities, initially in Russia, over the next 10 years. The United States is expected to contribute $10 billion to the Global Partnership, by far the largest amount of any nation. A collapse of U.S. threat reduction programs as a result of festering disagreements could endanger other G-8 commitments. This would allow obvious proliferation dangers to persist and kill fledgling efforts to extend this nonproliferation approach to new nations.

http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=ma05luongo