[ RadSafe ] Nuclear Power Plant Effluents

[BLHamrick at aol.com]

In a message dated 2/24/2005 2:41:10 P.M. Pacific Standard Time,  
goldinem at songs.sce.com writes:

As an  analogy, how "accurate" is the
speedometer on your car?  Plus or minus  3%, 10%?  Does the error change at
low speed vice high speed?   Ever change your tire size without
recalibrating your speedometer?   What's it say when you are just rolling
forward at walking speed out of the  driveway?  I'd bet it's pretty close to
zero with very large  statistical errors.



This is an excellent analogy!  And, it goes well with another that I  am fond 
of, which has to do with risk of death by automobile accident.  We  could 
lower the risk substantially, if we reduced the speed limit to 5 miles per  hour, 
but what would that do to our economy?  
 
I know that many people respond by saying that driving a car is a  
"voluntary" risk, but what about the risk to pedestrians or bicyclists - are  they 
"volunteering" for the risk of your driving above 5 miles per hour?   Are they 
assuming that risk by venturing outside at all?  And, what of  those rare 
occasions when a car goes careening into someone's living room?   Did they "volunteer" 
for that risk?  A rare occurrence, yes, but death by  nuclear power is much 
rarer in the U.S.  Much, much rarer.
 
We need to find ways to make the mathematics and statistics of risk  analysis 
more accessible to the public, so they can get a better feel for the  issues. 
 Your example of the large statistical error in the speedometer as  you 
approach "zero" speed is a good tool for such a venture.
 
Barbara L. Hamrick