[ RadSafe ] Re: Nuclear Power Plant Effluents / EMP, "Nuclear War Survival Skills "

[Dimiter Popoff]

> ... An increase of 30% may not even be a statistical change, but you
> need to know more about the data, e.g., how good was the sampling, 
> was there a biasing factor, etc.

One biasing factor which comes to mind could be population increase 
by a factor of about 1.3 because of plant opening (more jobs).

I don't know whether they open as many jobs for a plant as I have seen
in a plant nearby, though, (I had the feeling all those people entering
the plant at 8 AM or so were employed to pedal the generators... :),
so my perception on that may well be very distorted.


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http://www.tgi-sci.com
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> Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 14:18:42 -0800 (PST)
> From: John Jacobus <crispy_bird at yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Re: Nuclear Power Plant Effluents / EMP,
> 	"Nuclear War Survival Skills "
> To: "Richard L. Hess" <lists at richardhess.com>
> 
> What the TFP is doing is "cherry picking."  You
> selectively pick pieces of data that support your
> view.  Since cancer incidence follows statistical laws
> or randomness, it is easy to find data that supports
> what you want.  It is called clustering.
> http://cis.nci.nih.gov/fact/3_58.htm
> 
> Once you have a cluster, you find a cause.  If it
> real, you can evaluate the cause.  If it is
> statistical in nature, pick a cause or reason based on
> what you WANT to prove.  An increase of 30% may not
> even be a statistical change, but you need to know
> more about the data, e.g., how good was the sampling,
> was there a biasing factor, etc.  
> 
> If you are interesting in why people believe it weird
> things dispite evidence to the contrary, I would
> recommend "Why People Believe Weird Things:
> Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of
> Our Time" by Michael Shermer.  There are many smart
> people who hold strange views, and because they are
> intelligent, they present good arguements.
> 
> --- "Richard L. Hess" <lists at richardhess.com> wrote:
> 
> > Hi, John,
> > 
> > The two quotes were from good, solid, well-employed,
> > college-educated 
> > co-workers in a white-collar engineering office.
> > Yes, they are probably 
> > also nuts, but then most of my friends are nuts in
> > one way or another <smile>.
> > 
> > I do stock duct tape and plastic sheeting, but not
> > for the Tom Ridge 
> > Memorial Purposes. Plastic sheeting is most useful
> > during construction 
> > (which I am involved with now, and taking great
> > pains to protect the 
> > electrical systems of the studio from lightning and
> > other surges), and duct 
> > tape has such a wide variety of uses, one can't live
> > without it. I'm sure 
> > that some of you would like to put it on my
> > fingers...or mouth. <smile>
> > 
> > Actually, I always thought that the Tom Ridge
> > Memorial Plastic Sheeting and 
> > Duct Tape Scenario was part of the Minister of Fear
> > campaign as so honestly 
> > told by Mark Fiore.
> > 
> >
> http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/gate/archive/2004/07/14/fiorefear.DTL
> > 
> > I heard the recommendation and thought about it in
> > the context of our home 
> > in Glendale, CA, and said "this is silly." There are
> > so many infiltration 
> > paths, what good is this?
> > 
> > I am NOT worried about EMP. I want to learn more so
> > that I may carry on an 
> > informed discussion in my chosen field of media
> > archiving with people who 
> > are worried about EMP and digital archives. It's not
> > practical to store or 
> > manage petabytes of data using vacuum tube
> > equipment. I retain very little 
> > tube equipment.
> > 
> > A funny story about petabytes. About ten years ago,
> > Sony introduced a 
> > robotic data tape library that could hold over a
> > petabyte. At their 
> > original showing of it, the product was named the
> > "Petafile." The next time 
> > we saw it, the same product was called "Petasite." I
> > think there was a 
> > marketing guy looking for work.
> > 
> > RE: TFP, I understand the basic statistics. I wanted
> > to try and really 
> > understand their claim. The original post implied:
> > "When Salem was shut 
> > down there were X cases of cancer in the area over
> > several years. When 
> > Salem started up there were 1.3X cases of cancer
> > over a similar time 
> > frame." That's why I was asking questions--not
> > because I was worried, but 
> > I'm trying to understand the "science" behind the
> > statement. (note the 
> > "science" in quotes). Of course there are so many
> > other confounding factors 
> > and also the random probability of cancers occurring
> > in any given 
> > population over any given period of time could be
> > the explanation for this. 
> > I think someone said, "don't try and understand TFP
> > data." Perhaps that's 
> > the best advice yet.
> > 
> > My only problem with the TFP data it is that it is
> > covered in the media as 
> > if it were true and it just doesn't make any sense.
> > Magic ions moving 
> > through the ether undetected until they land in baby
> > teeth.
> > 
> > I like understanding things. Understanding things
> > leads to loss of fear. I 
> > propose that if half the population took ten percent
> > of the time that I've 
> > taken with an open mind, this would be put to rest.
> > 
> > Another big area of confusion seems to be HAARP.
> > People are confusing the 
> > calculation fiction (or shorthand) of effective
> > radiated power for actual 
> > power. No, I am not worried about HAARP, but there
> > are people who are. I've 
> > read the scare books and find their numbers are off
> > by a factor of 100 or so.
> > 
> > But I wish I understood more of what Tesla was
> > thinking 70-odd years ago 
> > for no reason other than it's an interesting enigma.
> > 
> > Cheers,
> > 
> > Richard
> > 
> > At 08:25 AM 2/28/2005, you wrote:
> > >My wife and I are very stoic about these stories. 
> > You
> > >can prepare for the nuclear attack, the "dirty
> > bomb,"
> > >etc., or get hit by a bus.  We refuse to buy duct
> > tape
> > >and plastic sheeting for our windows.  We have a
> > >radio, and will stay inside or evacuate if
> > necessary.
> > >We have a couple of days supplies in case we get
> > >snowed in.
> > >
> > >Personally, I think some of the quotes you list are
> > >from "nuts."  I refuse to live in fear of the
> > >improbable.  Why are you worried about EMP?  Do you
> > >think terrorist have nuclear weapons and
> > >intercontinential missiles?  I am more concerned
> > about
> > >blackouts due to down powerlines.  EMP is different
> > >from lightening due to the instantaneous peak.  If
> > you
> > >want to protect electronic equipment, use vacuum
> > >tubes.
> > >
> > >
> > >With regard to the TFP, study some basic
> > statistics.
> > >If you have small values for cancer, any increases
> > >with seem dramatic.  They claim an increase of 30%.
> > >Thirty percent of what?  Over what time frame?  Two
> > >years, five years, twenty years?
> > >
> > >Worry about the real problems, like that bus.
> > >
> > >--- "Richard L. Hess" <lists at richardhess.com>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > > At 05:26 PM 2/27/2005, John Jacobus wrote:
> > > > >Out of curiosity, what actions or
> > recommendations
> > > > have
> > > > >you and family taken?  Have you built fallout
> > > > >shelters, store water, built electroscopes,
> > etc?
> > > >
> > > > Hello, John,
> > > >
> > > > I'm trying to make sense of this all. I keep
> > hearing
> > > > so much doom and gloom
> > > > that I'm asking out of intellectual interest.
> > > >
> > > > I do have two CDV-700s and an Aware RM-70
> > (IIRC).
> > > > They are all G-M devices.
> > > > I don't have electroscopes, etc. I have not
> > built a
> > > > fallout shelter, but, I
> > > > have moved away from the LA Basin for other
> > reasons
> > > > to an area about 40
> > > > miles north of downtown Toronto--my wife's
> > hometown.
> > > >
> > > > In LA we used to store water and food, but don't
> > do
> > > > as much here. It was
> > > > for earthquake protection, not nuclear
> > incidents. We
> > > > keep a little here in
> > > > case we are blizzarded in.
> > > >
> > > > I want to be informed to make decisions for my
> > > > family--that was the
> > > > original intent of my joining the list. I had
> > heard
> > > > things around work like:
> > > >
> > > > --"my brother works for the spook agency and he
> > > > wants me to outfit my cabin
> > > > in the Sierras with a generator as a place to
> > run
> > > > to."
> > > >
> > > > --"I lived in Montana and I wouldn't drive the
> > Snake
> > > > River route without a
> > > > Geiger Counter." (I did, and it showed
> > background
> > > > radiation peaking around
> > > > 20µR/hr near some lava outcroppings and a bit
> > more
> > 
> === message truncated ===
> 
> 
> =====
> +++++++++++++++++++
> "Baltimore is actually a very safe city if you are not involved in the drug trade."
> DR. PETER BEILENSON, the city's health commissioner.
> 
> -- John
> John Jacobus, MS
> Certified Health Physicist
> e-mail:  crispy_bird at yahoo.com
> 
>
>
>