[ RadSafe ] Re: Zebras and overlooked hormesis

[John Jacobus]

It seems to me that if a hormetic effect existed, it
would have been observed.  It seems that those who
believe in hormesis are reanalyzing data to find data
so that they will have the proof they seek. Sometimes
you have to find results that may not be appropriate.

Of course, if not all of the data supports hormesis,
you tout those that appear to do so and ignore the
rest.  

Have you read the papers I sent with an unbiased eye?

--- howard long <hflong at pacbell.net> wrote:
> Indeed, Land and McGregor did an excellent job of
> collecting, analyzing and reporting scientifically.
> Who was looking for hormesis then (1977)?
>  
> This is like the vast N Shipyard Workers Study, in
> which Cameron (one of its prestigious advisory
> panel) only later found a 0.76 mortality rate of
> workers exposed to an extra 0.5 rad. No benefit
> showed up in the original one tail test of
> significance because no one expected benefit from
> LDR. Now, we should. That is the point of my
> discussion here. 
>  
> Billions of dollars and millions of HP hours are
> spent on ALARA that actually deprives people of
> benefit, instead of on the growing need for more
> nuclear power plants, medical nuclear uses,
> saving homes and offices from demolition because of
> actually beneficial doses from a dirty bomb, etc.
>  
> Howard Long
>  
> 
> Gerald Nicholls <Gerald.Nicholls at dep.state.nj.us>
> wrote:
> Dr. Long,
> 
> A physician I know is fond of the oft quoted maxim
> he learned in
> medical school: "When you hear hoofbeats, don't look
> for zebras." In
> other words, the simplest explanation is usually the
> correct one. It's
> far easier for me to believe that the authors of the
> paper under
> discussion simply did their job of collecting,
> analyzing and reporting
> what they found in a scientifically objective
> manner. Otherwise, I have
> to come up with a conspiracy scenario that involves
> the authors, peer
> reviewers and government agencies that provide
> funding for such work to
> explain why hormesis is "hidden." 
> 
> 
> 
> Gerald P. Nicholls
> NJ Dept. of Environmental Protection
> 609-633-7964
> gerald.nicholl at dep.state.nj.us
> 
> >>> howard long 03/10/05 02:13PM >>>
> Not statistical manipulations, but actual cases,
> convince me-
> 34 cases of breast cancer where 42.3 expected when
> 1-9rad, 
> 109 cases where 127.8 expected <1rad exposure .(1979
> report)
> 
> "What I find interesting is that the authors do not
> report this
> benefit."
> Exactly! I have no "devine"(sic) insight, but
> greater skepticism.
> 
> Howard Long
> 
> 
> 

+++++++++++++++++++
"A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy
enough people to make it worth the effort." Herm Albright

-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  crispy_bird at yahoo.com


		
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