AW: [ RadSafe ] nuclear weapons impact thread

[Franz Schönhofer]

Conrad,

Yes, I care to discuss, but rather online, because obviously there is a
lot of misunderstanding on this point and the DHS approach which I have
criticized heavily ("Fearmongering of DHS?") shows a political agenda
(scaring people, gathering more influence and money and supporting even
more restrictions on citizen rights etc. etc. though controversial
opinions are overwhelming). I try to put forward some facts instead of
speculations. 

Yes, it might not be impossible (please notice my very cautious
approach) that fission products from a 10 kt explosion at the west coast
(LA) might be detectable on the east coast (NY). This would depend
mostly on the winds prevailing at the time of detonation and afterwards.
If the winds will blow constantly and directly from LA to NY then highly
sophisticated high volume aerosol samplers and precipitation samplers
combined with highly sophisticated gamma-spectrometric detection systems
might find traces of fission products. The health impact? Zero. If the
wind blows to the west? What is "less than Zero"?

In 1980 news came from mass media, that China had conducted an
atmospheric nuclear test. Sorry I do not remember the yield stated. We
set up a high volume sampler in Vienna and checked every 6 or 12 hours
the filters. We found of course after some time fresh short-lived
fission products, but the traditional gross-alpha-beta detectors could
not detect anything. This was for me the ultimate justification to renew
the Austrian Surveillance System in order to replace the
gross-alpha-beta measurements by gammaspectroscopic methods. If this had
not occurred we would not have had any information as to both the
isotopic distribution of radionuclides in air nor precipitation after
the Chernobyl accident. This is extremely important, because the impact
of different radionuclides is extremely different regarding the dose.   

Since recently somebody whom I do not regard as a representative of US
scientists started his flaming (which I found very funny) by asking,
whom I am that I dare to..... I can tell you that I have not only been
in charge with the consequences of the Chernobyl accident on Austria but
have worked for almost 30 years with radiological emergency response. I
have also been the head of the Terrestrial Working Group of the
International Mururoa Project, which gave me the opportunity to deal
even more in detail with the effects of nuclear weapons explosions. 

The original discussion was about the impact at the site of the
explosion. I answered, but not in detail, but now I may add:

The heights of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki explosions were calculated in
order to maximise the destruction. A detonation at street level will
diminish the destruction, but will maximise the radioactive fallout in
the close vicinity because of activation of the vaporized ground - as
long as due to the NY topography (skyscrapers) a distribution is
possible.

The cold war philosophy included the mutual nuclear destruction option.
I suppose that almost all nuclear tests were in the first case directed
to estimation of destruction to the counterpart. The USA found out, that
enhancing the destruction capabilities of their hydrogen bombs would not
pay off, because there were to few targets, which could not be
destructed by low-yield nuclear bombs. (Please do not ask me for the
source, it has been a long time ago, during the cold war.) 

All these informations should be accessible in the open literature. So
please do not tell me that the DHS is not able to judge the potential
impact! 

The authorities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki did not know, what they had to
deal with. Hopefully the authorities of US cities would know very fast
what they face and what they have to do. 

Secondly I may cite old reports and even films I have seen. The USA has
both in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki case conducted more than careful
research on the effects. Why is this not taken into consideration? At
least a large number of nuclear tests detonations (including the first
one) have been used to estimate the effects on a population, on houses,
trees, etc.... I have seen many authentic films on that. Even soldiers
were used as "human guinea pigs", at least they claim it. All those
nuclear test explosions contributed to the rise of "radioactivity" in
the Northern Hemisphere and ended after the treaty for suspension of
atmospheric nuclear tests. The tests of China contributed only to a
negligible extent to the Northern Hemisphere contamination, the French
tests at Mururoa and Fangataufa, which were by orders of magnitude lower
than the yields of the US tests in the Marshall Islands.

The effects of nuclear tests and the contamination has been monitored
worldwide both on international and national level. Reports are widely
available. Singular observations might be interesting on a local level,
but sure not on a world wide one. 

The conclusions I draw is: Either the DHS is not staffed with persons
who even are able to draw conclusions from open sources, or they prevent
the conclusions from being fed into public statements. 
 
I repeat: "Fearmongering of the DHS?"  


Franz


Franz Schoenhofer
PhD, MR iR
Habicherg. 31/7
A-1160 Vienna
AUSTRIA
phone -43-0699-1168-1319


> -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] Im
> Auftrag von conrad
> Gesendet: Mittwoch, 23. März 2005 01:35
> An: radsafe at radlab.nl
> Betreff: [ RadSafe ] nuclear weapons impact thread
> 
> There was some discussion of the impact of a nuclear weapon being
3,000
> miles or 3,000 meters.  I don't have the source document but I believe
> that indeed, a detonation on the left coast could indeed deposit
> measureable fallout attributable to the detonation on the east coast.
> 
> Anyone care to discuss online or offline.
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