[ RadSafe ] U.S. nuclear experts: Much work remains to secure world's nuclear material

[Gerry Blackwood]

U.S. nuclear experts: Much work remains to secure world's nuclear material 
The Associated Press, May 5, 2005 
WASHINGTON 

Even as the U.S. government warns of al-Qaida's determination to obtain nuclear weapons, programs funded by the United States secured less Russian nuclear material in 2004 than the year before, according to a report Thursday by private nuclear analysts.

The study on global nuclear threat reduction programs came the day after U.S. and Pakistani officials announced the arrest of al-Qaida's No. 3 operative, Abu Farraj al-Libbi. The Pakistani government believes al-Libbi may have allies in its military's senior rungs, and U.S. experts say those officers may play a role in guarding Pakistani nuclear sites.

"The danger of nuclear theft is a global problem. It is not just a Russia problem," said Matthew Bunn, a co-author of the report from Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government and the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

"We need to forge a common nuclear standard for the world because terrorists are going to get nuclear material wherever it is easiest," Bunn added. "Nuclear security is only as strong as its weakest link."

U.S. intelligence officials have warned for some time about al-Qaida's interest in launching a nuclear attack, although the group is not believed to now have a device. Obtaining the weapon is believed to be harder than getting radiological material, which could be used in a dirty bomb.

Nevertheless, in 2003, Osama bin Laden sought _ and received _ a religious edict from a radical Saudi cleric that permitted using a nuclear bomb against U.S. civilians.

The new study looks at the terrorist threat and provides a detailed assessment of Russia, where most of the world's vulnerable stockpiles lie.

Since 1991, the United States has been funding programs to secure nuclear material developed by the former Soviet government. The report finds that such work in Russia is half done.

It said comprehensive security upgrades were completed in 2004 on 4 percent of Russia's nuclear material _ its highly enriched uranium or plutonium _ down from 6 percent in 2003. At the end of last year, 26 percent had been secured.

Safeguards include ensuring nuclear sites have undergone full vulnerability assessments, received a full suite of intrusion detectors, and other modern security equipment.

Yet the report found some room for optimism: The reports' authors say the U.S. Energy Department, one of the agencies spearheading the work, has predicted a substantial increase in progress this year, perhaps a tripling of the 2004 pace.

"The good news is that we are making progress," said former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., a chief architect of the legislation that created the U.S. programs supporting Russian nuclear security. "The bad news is that we are doing too little and moving too slowly."

The U.S.-backed programs in Russia have been riddled with issues, including disputes over who is liable if someone gets hurt while securing the material. The Russians also want access to sensitive U.S. nuclear sites, comparable to what the U.S. government is asking of them.

Nunn and the reports' authors urged the White House to maintain pressure on U.S. and Russian bureaucracies to get the work done. They also want more support from U.S. allies, noting that a nuclear 9/11 would be a world-changing event, shaking the global economy.

########

My Note: Just to break it down some what and these are all rough calculations.....

Bunns report states an (estimated) 600 metric tons of HEU was in the operational inventory and that is an estimated figure. I have seen figues going as high as 910 metric tons. I am not sure even the Russians know what they really have.

Bunn staes that some 240MT has been dealth with. Leaving some 360MT of HEU still in the inventory needing to be dealth with.

Lets take a low number of 32kg to make a bomb that would come to about enough material to make some 11,250 bombs still available.

If we use a high number say 45kg that means there is enough for some 8000 bombs still available.

If anyone has not seen the report let me know............



"Dante once said that the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality."