Ecological Studies

["H.Wade Patterson" <hwade@talltown.com>]

POSTED TO RADSAFE

Group:
It's a common misconception that so-called "ecological" studies are
necessarily erroneous. If you will read what I've written below, perhaps
you will take a different view.

Best wishes,
-- 
Wade

mailto:hwade@talltown.com

H.Wade Patterson
1116 Linda Lane
Lakeview OR 97630
ph 541 947-4974

Are All Ecological Studies Fallacious?; Not Necessarily.

In this forum and elsewhere, ecological studies have been deemed
fallacious, simply because their authors have assumed that, since the
majority of a group has a characteristic, the characteristic is related
to a health state common in the group. Such wholesale judgments are
incorrect because:

1. The ecologic fallacy is committed only when it is MISTAKENLY assumed
that, because the majority of a group has a characteristic, the
characteristic is related to a health state common in the group.

2. Thus, it is ONLY fallacious when the assumption is MISTAKEN.

3.It is not, therefore, NECESSARILY fallacious to assume that because
the majority of a group has a characteristic, the characteristic is
related to a health state common in the group.

Here are examples of ecological studies that were not fallacious. i.e.,
the assumption of an association was correct.
a. During the latter years of the Roman Republic it was correctly
observed that dwelling near the Pontine marshes ( group characteristic)
was unhealthy (health state).
b. A British physician * correctly observed that chimney sweeps (group
characteristic) suffered a high incidence of cancer of the scrotum
(health state).
c. Another British physician, Edward Jenner, correctly observed that
milkmaids (group characteristic)  had a decreased incidence of smallpox
(health state).

Thus, it seems that unless the observation is MISTAKEN, the association
may be correct.

Finally, therefore, the observations of a particular ecological study
must be shown to be incorrect before the association is so judged.

Examples of ecological studies where it has not been shown that the
observations are incorrect include:

1. Craig, L.; Seidman, H. Leukemia and lymphoma mortality in relation to
cosmic radiation. Blood 17 : 319, 1961.

2. Frigerio, N.A.; Ekerman, K.F.; Stowe, R.S. The Argonne Radiological
Impact Program (ARIP), Part I. Carcinogenic Hazard from Low-Level,
Low-Rate Radiation; ANL/ES-26 Part I, Environmental and Earth Sciences,
Sept. 1973.

3. Frigerio, N.A.; Stowe, R.S.; Carcinogenic and genetic hazard from
background radiation. IAEA Symposium, Biological and Environmental
Effects of Low Level Radiation, vol. 2, pp 285-289, Vienna, 1976.

4. Luckey, T. D., Physiological benefits from low levels of ionizing
radiation. Health Physics, v43, 6, pp 771-789, (1982).

5. Wei, L.X.; Zha, Y.R.; Tao , Z.F.; He, W.H.; Chen, D.Q.; Yuan, Y.L.
Epidemiological investigation of radiological effects in high background
radiation areas of Yangjiang, China. Journal of Radiation Research, 31,
1, pp 119-136, 1990.

6. Nambi, K.S.V.; Soman, S.D. Further observations on environmental
radiation and cancer in India. Health Physics, 59, 3, pp 339-344, 1990.

7. Chen, D.; Wei, L. Chromosome aberration, cancer mortality and
hormetic phenomena among inhabitants in areas of high background
radiation in China. Journal of Radiation Research, 32 Suppl. 2, pp
46-53, 1991.

8. Shihab-Eldin, A.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R. Is There a Large Risk of
Radiation? A Critical Review of Pessimistic Claims. Environment
International, 18, pp. 117-151, 1992.

9. Latarjet, R. Radiation carcinogenesis and radiation protection.
Cancer J., 5, pp 23-27, 1992.

10. Biological effects of low level exposures : dose-response
relationships. Edward J. Calabrese, editor. Boca Raton : Lewis
Publishers, c1994.

11. Hickey, R. J.; Bowers, E. J.; Spence, D. E.; Zemel, B. S.; Clelland,
A. B.; Clelland, R. C. Low Level Ionizing Radiation And Human Mortality
: Multi-Regional Epidemiological Studies. A Preliminary Report. Health
Phys. 40(5) :625-641; May, 1981

12. Hickey, R. J.; Bowers, E. J.; Clelland, R. C.; . Radiation hormesis,
public health, and public policy: a commentary. Health Phys. 44(3)
:207-219; March, 1983

* I wish to thank David Perry of the Rutherford Laboratoy for the
complete citattion which is: Pott, Percival (1714-1788), English
physician who is eponymically known for spinal deformity due to
tuberculosis. He was also first to describe chimney sweep's cancer
(carcinoma of the scrotum).