Chernobyl Linked to US Leukemia

["J. J. Rozental" <josrozen@netmedia.net.il>]

> A researcher says the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine may have
> caused a 30 percent increase in leukemia cases among U.S. children born
> soon after


The Cherbonyl consequences in some parts of Russia as well as average doses
in various countries, have been assessed by the UNSCEAR. To Consider the
consequences and future perspective, please GO TO the Conference  through
the IAEA's World Atom Internet Services at the 
address: http://www.iaea.or.at/worldatom/thisweek/preview/chernobyl.

The following information is part of the conclusion

             INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ONE DECADE AFTER CHERNOBYL:
                  SUMMING UP THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACCIDENT 
........................
Highlights of the findings include those related to: 

Accident Initial Fatalities and Injuries. The explosion on 26 April 1986 and
early release of radionuclides resulted in 30 deaths, including 28 deaths
attributed to acute radiation sickness. These fatalities occurred among the
134 plant staff, firefighters, and emergency workers (liquidators) who
initially responded to the accident and who suffered from severe radiation
sickness that was treated in hospitals. Since then, over the past decade,
whilst 14 additional patients have died, only some of these might be
attributable to radiation exposure. 

Incidence of Thyroid Cancer. There has been a substantial increase in
reported cases of  thyroid cancer in Belarus, Ukraine, and some parts of
Russia, especially in young children, generally attributed to exposure to
radioiodine during the early phases of  the accident in 1986. Up to the end
of 1995, a total of about 800 cases (including 400 in Belarus alone) have
been reported in children who were under age 15 at the time of diagnosis. To
date, three children have died from thyroid cancer.
Over the next  decades, there will most probably be an increase in the
incidence of thyroid cancer among those who were children in 1986; the
estimated number of cases is in the range of a few thousand but there is
considerable uncertainty about this. The group at risk should be closely
monitored throughout their lives, since treatment should be successful in
most cases that are diagnosed early. 

Long-Term Radiation Health Effects. Apart from increase in thyroid cancer,
there has been no statistically significant deviation in the incidence rates
of other cancers that  can be attributed to radiation exposure due to the
accident. Based on predictive models, it is estimated that the number of
future deaths from leukaemia is of the order of 200 among the 3.7 million
residents of the contaminated territories and 200 among the 200,000
liquidators who worked at Chernobyl in 1986-87. Leukaemia is an early
indicator of radiation health impact. The fact that it has not been seen to
date provides reassurance that early predictions are not severely in error. 

..............................

=====================================

Topical Session 8: The consequences in perspective: Prognosis for the future 

	Evaluation of the Chernobyl accident is very complex because of the
following facts: 

        Assessing the health effects of radiation exposure is difficult
since the precise radiation doses received as a result of the accident are
not well known. Neither is there a clear understanding of the relationship
between radiation dose received and  cancer induction. Because of these
facts, projections of future numbers of excess cancer cases (above the
normal number expected in given populations) depends upon a number of
assumptions which are at best crude estimates. 

   	  The only health effects to date that are directly attributable to
radiation  exposure are the increase in childhood thyroid cancers and the
health effects among the so called "liquidators" (those persons cleaning the
site after the accident). 

     Even though the widespread psychological effects among the population
are unrelated to radiation effects, they are attributable to the accident. 

    	 The increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer has been
dramatic and if it continues to persist, as those affected grow older, it
could result in  several thousand cases over the coming decades. 

   	  Increases in leukaemia and thyroid cancers among the most highly
exposed groups (the "liquidators" and people who were evacuated from the
exclusion zone - 30 kms around the accident site) may be detectable in the
future but are  not yet apparent. 

	Persons who would benefit from careful monitoring in the future: 

 	  1.Children with distinct possibility of incurring thyroid cancer. 

	   2.The most highly exposed of the "liquidators". 

	   3.First workers called upon to tackle the accident.


=============================================
J. J. Rozental
consultant, Radiantion Safety and Regulation
for developing countries