Re: Bulgaria

[Radoslav P Radev <rado@uclink2.berkeley.edu>]

It seems that similar or even higher rate of cancer as a result of the
Chernobil nuclear plant accident should be observed in Romania and
Southern Ukraine since the radioactive cloud passed these countries first
before reaching Bulgaria.  It is unusual that the radioactive cloud would
drop in Bulgaria bypassing Romania with its high Carpatian mountains.
One should expect similar rates of cancer due to Chernobil in the
neighboring countries (Macedonia, Serbia, Greece, European part of
Turkey) because Bulgaria is a small country and the distances to the
neighbors are small.

Another consideration is that (as far as I remember) the winds were
blowing towards north-northwest (Belarus, Baltic states, Sweden, Finland)
in the first days of the accident. What about increased cancer risks in
those countries in comparison with Bulgaria?  Of course, the pathways of
radioisotope deposition may differ from country to country.

Radoslav Radev
rado@uclink2.berkeley.edu


On Tue, 11 Nov 1997, Al Tschaeche wrote:

> Has anyone seen the report mentioned in the following article and has
> the report been critiqued by competent authority?
> 
> Cancer in Bulgaria still marked by Chernobyl
> 
>    SOFIA, Nov 6 (AFP) - Bulgaria has the highest rate of cancer in 
> Europe, in part as a result of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant
> explosion, according to a report by a team of Bulgarian doctors
> published Thursday. 
>    The report, drawn up by a government commission to study the 
> effect of the Chernobyl blast 11 years ago, said cases of thyroid
> cancer among children had risen 2,000 percent since then. 
>    Radioactive contamination could produce 470 new types of cancer  in
> Bulgaria over the next 50 years, added the report, cited by the
> Continent newspaper. 
>    Between 1991 and 1994, the rate of cancer rose from 257 cases  per
> 100,000 people to 289, while the death rate from cancer rose from 179
> to 191 per 100,000 over the same period. 
>    The report said that cases of stomach and intestinal cancer were 
> expected to rise by 2002.
>