Re: BEIR VI and the Numbers???

["Otto G. Raabe" <ograabe@ucdavis.edu>]

At 07:40 PM 2/23/98 -0600, you wrote:
>Otto G. Raabe wrote:
>> 
>> February 23, 1998
>
>> 
>> Personally, I believe that the risk to the public from typical levels of
>> radon in homes is considerably smaller than the BEIR VI (Lubin) model
>> suggests, and is quite small for homes with air concentration less than
>> about 10 pCi/L.
>
>Does this mean you don't believe Bernie Cohen's data that show low
>levels of radon are beneficial?  If not, why not?  If so, then your
>"quite small" in the sentence above needs revision.  Al Tschaeche
>antatnsu@pacbell.net
>
MY REPLY:

My understanding of Bernie Cohen's excellent studies is that the LNT theory
has been clearly rejected! It is possible, but not proven, that there is a
beneficial effect at low concentrations of radon. If the LNT is rejected,
Cohen's data may be subject to the "ecological fallacy" since the average
radon concentration is not necessarily linked to the average cancer rate.
Also, if there is a beneficial effect, it may not extend to concentrations
as high as 10 pCi/L. If there is a beneficial effect, it should be possible
to verify that effect with appropriate case-control studies. I don't
believe that there is an indication of a beneficial effect in the available
case-control data. My own research on internally deposited radionuclides
cannot answer the beneficial effect question, but does indicate that the
dose-response relationship is extremely non-linear and at small doses the
risk drops to very small values. 

I believe that Bernie Cohen is always careful to point out that his studies
cannot be used to prove a beneficial effect although one may exist.

Otto
		*****************************************************
		Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
                [President, Health Physics Society, 1997-1998]
		Institute of Toxicology & Environmental Health (ITEH)
		     (Street address: Old Davis Road)
		University of California, Davis, CA 95616
		Phone: 530-752-7754  FAX: 530-758-6140 [NEW AREA CODE]
		E-mail ograabe@ucdavis.edu