Federal Guidance Report No 13

["Jesse H. Coleman" <radshoals@airnet.net>]

FGR 13 will allow us to no longer stop with the calculation of doses
to the public.  Why stop with rems and Severts when we can calculate
the numbers of cancer deaths we'll cause with our nasty emissions?

For example:  Suppose your facility somehow has an accute release
of U-238 oxide (it used to be inhalation type Y, but that's gone
away and it's probably now type S for Slow).  Anyway, assume AMAD of
1 micro m and assume that 10,000 people somehow received an accute
intake of 1,000 Bq of this stuff.  FGR 13 provides a mortality risk
of 6.07E-7 for this type of intake.  Our 10,000 people times
1,000 Bq times the risk factor equals 6 cancer deaths (99.9 % of
them, lung cancers).  This sort of calculation will make
environmental impact statments as much fun as a root canal.

Lets do the Denver calculation:  From NCRP Report No. 93, pages 11
and 12 the annaul cosmic radiation dose in Denver is 0.50 mSv and
only 0.26 at sea level.  For terresterial radiation; 0.63 at
Denver and 0.16 for the Atlantic/Gulf region.  This is an excess
of 0.71 mSv/yr for Denver residents over say Boston residents.

Lets assume that its all gamma radiation, ignore structural
shielding and let a Gy = a Sv.  The lifetime mortality risk factor
for this type of radiation is 5.75E-2 per Gy according to Table
7.3 of FGR 13.  Assuming a 75.2 year life span, we get a lifetime
probability of cancer mortality of 0.0031.  This means that if a
million Denver residents (new borns anyway) would move ASAP to
Boston, 3,100 fatal cancers could be averted.  This is clearly
worthwhile.  Therefore, the EPA's numbers indicate that
DENVER SHOULD BE EVACUATED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

Or maybe this application of the LNT theory should be examined.

The EPA is receiving comments on FGR 13 untill June 30, 1998.

No disclamers.

Jesse Coleman

RADSHOALS@AIRNET.NET