Leukemia in Astronauts -Reply

[Charles Willis <CAW@nrc.gov>]

Mike,

You are correct, of course.  One can wonder about most anything; the question is,
to what avail?

If you care, it would seem reasonable to get (or guess at) the dose received and do
a probability of causation calculation.  I suspect that the doses received in his
300-mile flight were small compared to the other doses he received from nature
and from medical procedures so the issue might be a bit complicated, but a look at
the data is to be preferred to hand-wringing.

It may be worth noting that Alan Shepard  was a Commander (and therefore
full-grown) back in 1961 when he became the first American spaceman, so the
leukemia is not likely to have greatly shortened his life. 

Charlie Willis
caw@nrc.gov