Fallout blamed for thyroid cancer -Reply -Reply -Reply -Reply-Reply

[Michael S Ford <MFORD@pantex.com>]

Charlie,  I'm not sure where the *wild-eyed extremists*
characterization comes from, but I don't think you'll find it in any of
my messages on this thread... 

Nevertheless, I find the use of risk estimates (i.e., so many fatal
cancers from X events) based on population doses to be more
harmful than helpful in conveying information to the public AND
more falsehood than fact. (apologies for the strong statement)

As for the approach of population doses being conventional (I
know you said you weren't defending it), it was once said *when 40
million people believe in a dumb idea (read: conventional), it's still
a dumb idea.*

There must be a threshold dose value when reporting risks based
on population doses. (ref. HPS Position Statement, January 1996).

More and more data are showing the effect of low level radiation
(i.e., less than 0.2 Gy acute) on the stimulation of cellular repair
mechanisms.  To assume that every millionth of a mSv may
contribute to a fatal or life-shortening cancer goes beyond the
threshold of *reasonableness* or conservatism.

While 1 Gy may lead to 20 DNA alterations per exposed cell in the
human body, those same cells with go through 90 million DNA
alterations in one year through normal metabolism.

I don't disagree with your math, your selection of risk factors, or
your assumptions.  It is the underlying premises that I take issue
with.

Thank you for the valuable and considerate thought and effort that
you have put into this discussion.  As always,  I appreciate your
insight and expertise.
Have a great day!
v/r
Michael

>>> Charles Willis wrote on Fri 18 Sep 98  7:28 >>>
Michael,

I did not intend to argue for the validity of the risk-population dose
relationship.  I do believe that the use of the relationship is
conventional.  Thus, while it seems appropriate to disagree with
someone or some group that uses the risk-population dose
estimates, it does not seem proper to castigate that person or group
for being wild-eyed extremists.....
...
Thus, the production of 225,000 thyroid cancers would require a
population dose of about 6 E8 person-rems.  (With the 1960 US
population, this would be an average dose of a little over 3 rems.)...

...
I would not claim to have a good estimate of the risk, but I do
conclude that this does not seem to have been a Sternglass-type
assessment.

Charlie Willis
caw@nrc.gov
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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