[ RadSafe ] AW: The demise of LNT

[Rainer.Facius at dlr.de]

Jerry, (and Sandy):

I tried to be careful in making the qualification "as far as science is concerned". 

Regarding the regulatory/political pressures, this very moment when I was typing this in I had to learn the hard way that your expectations probably are realistic. I received a draft of a POSITION-PAPER of our "Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz" (something like your EPA but only concerned with radiation) which perpetuates all the old myths about LNT. They even cancelled the DDREF, yet in reducing it to 1 they at least are consistent in contrast to BEIR VII-2 which retained an (also reduced) DDREF of 1.5.

In politics the only way (most) people learn is the hard way. Since economic/social reality will have its way unimpressed by our or their whims, one or the other day LNT will become politically incorrect - after the hard way has been stridden.

Nevertheless - Cheers, Rainer

Dr. Rainer Facius
German Aerospace Center
Institute of Aerospace Medicine
Linder Hoehe
51147 Koeln
GERMANY
Voice: +49 2203 601 3147 or 3150
FAX:   +49 2203 61970

-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
Von: jjcohen at prodigy.net [mailto:jjcohen at prodigy.net] 
Gesendet: Freitag, 12. August 2005 17:14
An: Facius, Rainer; chris.hofmeyr at webmail.co.za
Cc: radsafe at radlab.nl
Betreff: Re: The demise of LNT

Rainer,
    I hope you are correct in predicting the approaching demise of LNT, but I am not so sure. As scientists, we naturally believe that fact and logic will ultimately prevail. However, LNT was never really based on science. The adoption on LNT had a more political basis intended to give the impression that radiation standards provided an ultimate degree of safety. There has been an abundance of recent assessments indicating that LNT is nonsense from a scientific standpoint.
However, there has been little, if any, action in the political arena.
    IMHO, scientific problems are best solved by science, while political problems should be corrected by political action. Whether or not it has a sound scientific basis, as long as LNT remains politically correct, it will continue to prevail.

Jerry Cohen



----- Original Message -----
From: <Rainer.Facius at dlr.de>
To: <chris.hofmeyr at webmail.co.za>
Cc: <radsafe at radlab.nl>
Sent: Friday, August 12, 2005 7:12 AM
Subject: AW: AW: [ RadSafe ] AW: Low level radiation and cancer:


Christian:

Thank you for your information regarding the life expectancy in Kerala exceeding that of normal Indians by a huge 19 years. I wonder whether you might be able to dig up this information in writing. Nowadays TV stations often publish manuscripts of their broadcasts on their website. Since you did see this interview, you are the one predestined to search for such a document.

Regarding your suggestion to study life expectancy as a function of the natural radiation exposure, my attitude is spilt.

Given the never-ending hassles regarding the influence of confounders, competing - in particular socio-economic - factors etc., etc., I sincerely doubt that such a crude population wide measure will yield the convincing evidence you expect. That an endpoint even less specific than cancer could reveal a compelling association with background dose radiation which cancer studies - with the exception of B. Cohen's work for lung cancer - were so far unable to establish would appear as a miracle to me and many more.

On the other hand, if indeed differences in the order of the Kerala life span excess could be demonstrated elsewhere and associated with radiation exposure, that really might be able to finally put LNT to rest. A far as science is concerned, I see the life expectancy of the LNT postulate approaching its natural demise anyway, so that to accelerate its departure might not be worth the efforts necessary for the studies which you suggest (of course Jim Muckerheide will vehemently object). If however such results could be construed as a case for radiation-hormesis working in human populations, the implications are hardly imaginable and of course would merit any effort.

Hopefully you will be able to find that interview and share it.

Kind regards, Rainer