AW: [ RadSafe ] Re: LNT/threshold/hormesis - what do HPs really

[Dukelow, James S Jr]

Bernard Cohen has corrected my memory lapse.  1936 it was.

Best regards.

Jim Dukelow

-----Original Message-----
From: Bernard Cohen [mailto:blc+ at pitt.edu] 
Sent: Friday, July 22, 2005 7:21 AM
To: Dukelow, James S Jr
Cc: John Jacobus; Rainer.Facius at dlr.de; Clayton.Bradt at labor.state.ny.us;
radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: Re: AW: [ RadSafe ] Re: LNT/threshold/hormesis - what do HPs
really


    Further nit-picks:
       It was the Roosevelt vs Landon election in 1936, and I am quite 
sure the poll was with a mail-in post card. It did spell the death of 
Literary Digest, a very popular magazine up to that time. It predicted a

Landon win, but Roosevelt won all states but Maine and Vermont. I lived 
thru this and remember it well -- better than I remember more recent 
events.

Dukelow, James S Jr wrote:

>To nitpick about John's anecdote:  It was the 1940 election with 
>Republican Wendell Wilkie opposing Roosevelt, who was running for a 
>tradition-breaking third term (a possibility later ruled out by 
>constitutional amendment).  The poll was conducted by the magazine 
>Literary Digest and it was a telephone poll.  I showed Wilkie winning 
>in a landslide, the very opposite of what happened in the actual 
>election. Literary Digest went bankrupt shortly thereafter.  The whole 
>affair was taken very seriously by political pollster, who modified 
>their polling techniques to try to assure polling samples 
>representative of the eventual electorate.
>
>Best regards.
>
>Jim Dukelow
>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
>Richland, WA
>jim.dukelow at pnl.gov
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On 
>Behalf Of John Jacobus
>Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2005 9:43 AM
>To: Rainer.Facius at dlr.de; Clayton.Bradt at labor.state.ny.us; 
>radsafe at radlab.nl
>Subject: Re: AW: [ RadSafe ] Re: LNT/threshold/hormesis - what do HPs 
>really
>
>
>Of course, the poll is only a reflection of the
>sampling group.  There is a story that a telephone
>poll was conducted of the 1932 election between FDR
>and Herbert Hoover.  Herbert Hoover won the poll, as
>only rich people could afford telephones during the
>Great Depression.  (This is an ancedotal story, so do
>not take it seriously.)  A poll taken on RADSAF would
>only apply to those who subscribe to RADSAF.  And
>cared enough to vote.
>
>Rainer, I agree that the issues around the LNT and
>hormesis is not about scientific truth.  They are
>models of dose response, and neither rise to level of
>a scientific theory. _______________________________________________
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