[ RadSafe ] Chernobyl radiation death toll 56 so far - U.N

[Jaro]

There was a similar article in the Globe and Mail newspaper.
I sent them the following comment :

To the Editor:

Your AP article, "Toll from Chernobyl lowered" (Monday, September 5,
2005) states that "The report said the final death toll attributed
to radiation could reach 4,000."

But this estimate is based on extrapolating radiation risks from
high doses to low doses, using the so-called Linear No-Threshold, or
LNT hypothesis.

However, according to the POSITION STATEMENT OF THE HEALTH PHYSICS
SOCIETY, "RADIATION RISK IN PERSPECTIVE," (posted at
http://hps.org/documents/radiationrisk.pdf ), "in accordance with
current knowledge of radiation health risks, the Health Physics
Society recommends against quantitative estimation of health risks
below an individual dose of 5 rem in one year or a lifetime dose of
10 rem in addition to background radiation. Risk estimation in this
dose range should be strictly qualitative accentuating a range of
hypothetical health outcomes with an emphasis on the likely
possibility of zero adverse health effects."
The Position Statement continues, "There is substantial and
convincing scientific evidence for health risks following high-dose
exposures. However, below 5–10 rem (which includes occupational and
environmental exposures), risks of health effects are either too
small to be observed or are nonexistent. [....]
Collective dose (the sum of individual doses in a defined exposed
population expressed as person-rem) has been a useful index for
quantifying dose in large populations and in comparing the magnitude
of exposures from different radiation sources. However, collective
dose may aggregate information excessively, for example, a large
dose to a small number of people is not equivalent to a small dose
to many people, even if the collective doses are the same. Thus, for
populations in which almost all individuals are estimated to receive
a lifetime dose of less than 10 rem above background, collective
dose is a highly speculative and uncertain measure of risk and
should not be used for the purpose of estimating population health
risks."

Thus while the media may wish to emphasize that the final death toll
attributed to radiation "could reach 4,000," in fact they SHOULD be
emphasizing that it is highly unlikely to be very much more than
the "Fewer than 50 deaths [that] have been directly attributed to
radiation released in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant
accident."

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[ RadSafe ] Chernobyl radiation death toll 56 so far - U.N
George J. Vargo vargo at physicist.net
Mon Sep 5 17:52:41 CEST 2005

Chernobyl radiation death toll 56 so far - U.N
Mon Sep 5, 2005 3:38 PM BST

By Francois Murphy
VIENNA (Reuters) - The number of people killed by radiation as a result of
the Chernobyl disaster, the world's worst nuclear accident, is so far 56,
far lower than previously thought, the U.N. said on Monday.

A report compiled by the Chernobyl Forum, which includes eight U.N.
agencies, said the final death toll was expected to reach about 4,000 --

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