[ RadSafe ] RE: "Science" also misrepresents the "Chernobyl Forum" report

[Marcel Schouwenburg]

Posted on behalf of Y.C. Luan.
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Dear Jim and all:

As there are so many physicists so care about whether 4000 people died 
in the Chernobyl accident, I would like also to discuss  about this 
matter, though my asssertion still coudl not convence health scientists 
in the last ten years.

After ten years of the Chernobyl accident, a conference held purpossely 
on 8-12 on  April 1996 for this most serious accident in Venia, which 
was co-sponered by IAEA, WHO and EC  for analysis the damage of the 
reactor and the health effects of radaition injures to  the people..The 
most important scientists and organization in the caccident was the 
Interantioanl Chernobyly Project (ICJ) which was same as RERF in 
analyzing of the injure of Japanese and the deterministic and stochastic 
heallth effects of the radiation and followed the results of the the 
atomic explosion. When the Chernobyl reactor exploded on 26 April 1968, 
the ARS was quite similar caused to the Russian people, 134 people  
diagnosed in 134 cases, 28 died (all were fireman ))as a consquened in 
first three months of radiation injures, and 2 with unrelated to 
accident. and 14 died with in ten year not  related to radiation injure. 
So that 44 people died in the Chernobyl accidemt.

If the scentists think any bit radiation received, would increase the 
cancer mordality of people outside the Chernobyl reactor, the total 
deaths of people in Chernobyl  amounted up to 4000 might be reasonable.  
After Chernobyl accident, 200,000 workers had been engaged for accident 
enmergency, and for decontanimaton of the fission products released 
outside of the reactor in a  quite big space of area  around the power 
plant, the workers had received the average dose of  about 100 mSv in 
1986-87. If such radiation doses could increase concer deaths based on 
the LNT model accomplished by the the RERF scentists, the excess cancer 
deaths might be 3000 persons in the future (6000x 100 mSv x  5 persons 
x  1000mSv /100x1000 mSv =3000 persons ) and the natural cancer deaths 
of workers might  be 3040 persons (assume  the natural cancer deaths of 
the workers same as in Taiwan 160 peersers/100,000person year for 19 
year=3040 persons ) .

.But besides 44 persons died who recevied high acute radiation in  the 
accident, what real ammount of persons would die. The ICJ predicted 
based on RERF, 150 leukemia of the Rusisan workers shoud died after ten 
years, actuall no such excess leukemai observed, solid cancer could not 
predicated. Dr Ilylin, charman of the biophysics and academy of Federal 
Russia represent many scentists wrote a letter to IAEA in 2000 indicated 
that the cancer deaths of the workers was lower than the nomal 
public,and there were only 48 incidence of leukima until 2000, and I 
wrote also a letter to IAEA indicated if the radiation received in low 
dose rate by people, the radiation would not increase cancer mortality, 
but reduced the cancer mortality sharply as coincidently observed in the 
Co-60 contaminated apartments in Taiwan. the 250 natural cancer deaths 
in 21 years reduced to  to only 3%. So that the chronic radiation, or 
radiation in low dose rate, is always beneficial to people and could 
prevent the cancer of people. Such beneficial health effects of 
radiation was human being clinical expermented by the residents who 
lived 21 years unkowingly in the Co-60 apartments in Taiwan.      
.             .

Best regads.

YC  Luan
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Marcel Schouwenburg - RadSafe moderator & List owner
Head Training Centre Delft
National Centre for Radiation Protection (Dutch abbr. NCSV)

Faculty of Applied Sciences / Reactor Institute Delft
Delft University of Technology
Mekelweg 15
NL - 2629 JB  DELFT
The Netherlands
Phone +31 (0)15 27 86575
Fax     +31 (0)15 27 81717
email   m.schouwenburg at tnw.tudelft.nl