[ RadSafe ] New Chernobyl Study Predicts up to 60, 000 Excess Cancer Deaths

[Steven Dapra]

April 16

         The germane portion of the story linked below says:

"But John Gofman, Professor of Medical Physics at Berkeley, a well 
recognised world expert in both the physics and biology of radiation, has 
calculated that 950,000 people will have got, or will get cancer as a 
result of the Chernobyl fallout, and roughly half will die of their 
cancers.  . . .

"Suppose in round figures the population of Northern Europe at the time of 
Chernobyl was 300-million. We would expect about 75-million of these people 
to get cancer spontaneously at some stage in their lives. Suppose an 
additional one-million got cancer as a result of Chernobyl fallout. This is 
the variation that one would expect almost 20% of the time by chance alone, 
so this number would remain undetected as a consequence of exposure.

"It is on the basis of this more careful and informed analysis that 
Professor Gofman, of Berkeley, has calculated that 950,000 people will have 
got or will get cancer as a result of the Chernobyl fallout and that 
roughly half will die of their cancers."

Steven Dapra
sjd at swcp.com


At 10:09 AM 4/16/06 +0800, you wrote:
>I would be interested to know what precision should be placed on the 
>numerous and contradictory estimated projected future deaths from the 
>Chernobyl incident.
>
>It is clear that the basic calculation is a triple product of mean 
>exposure dose to a population, the size of the population, and presumably 
>nominal risk coefficients based on ICRP.
>
>However, current estimates make claims which usually vary from 4,000 to 
>over 60,000.  However, on to day's radio national program, OCKAMS RAZOR an 
>even greater number of deaths has been claimed.
>
><http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1613742.htm>
>
>Dr John Coulter, ex Australian Senator and President of Sustainable 
>Population Australia quoted the figure of 950,000.  His stated authority 
>is Gofman J.

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