[ RadSafe ] World's Biggest Wind Park -Capacity Factor vs. Nu clear

Tue Feb 21 15:11:59 CST 2006

Hi Jaro,
I really did misstate things in one sentence.  Thanks for correcting it.

Of course the sentence I posted:
"The article states that they hope to realize 13.14 terawatt hours of 
generation per year." should have more clearly stated that "they hope to 
realize 4.2 terrawatt hours vs a theoretical maximum at 100% CF of 13.1 
terra watt hrs"  or something to that effect, which equated to the 32% CF I 
used in comparing it to baseload operation of large central nuclear 
stations.

It is almost certain the Norwegians will never achieve a capacity factor of 
32% given the experience all over the world with wind generation, especially 
in harsh climates.

Stewart Farber

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Franta, Jaroslav" <frantaj at aecl.ca>
To: <radsafe at radlab.nl>
Sent: Tuesday, February 21, 2006 1:16 PM
Subject: RE: [ RadSafe ] World's Biggest Wind Park -Capacity Factor vs. Nu 
clear

Thanks Stewart.

Just a minor note -- your figure of 13.14 TWh is the max. theoretical annual
generation at 100% CF.
The article states that "the three wind parks, called Havsul I, II and IV,
would generate a total of 4.2 terawatt hours of electricity annually."
Dividing 4.2 by 13.14 gives your (correct) figure of 32%CF.

Here in Canada the CFs so far have been around 20% or less, but Hydro-Quebec
now requires/ assumes 36% CF for new projects -- it remains to be seen
whether Nature will cooperate -- and what the consequences will be of energy
supply planning based on such bogus numbers....

In Ontario, OPA (Ontario Power Authority) assumed a capacity factor of 47%
for wind turbines when it projected that Canada needed a "minimal" installed
capacity of 3,000 megawatts in wind turbines by 2025.
The two major wind-farm operators in Ontario, OPG and Huron Wind (part of
Bruce Power), have both claimed 40-45% capacity factors in their
advertising.
The mistake has been recognized by Huron Wind, but they still have these
files on their website and on their billboard beside the Bruce windfarm and
throughout the material in their visitor's centre.
They claim that it would be expensive to correct since the information is
repeated in all their PR material, so it has to wait until the next planned
overhaul of everything (not likely soon).
In the meantime, the OPA disseminates the incorrect figures to millions of
Ontarians......

Germany's wind generation capacity is the largest in the world, at 12,000
megawatts - 11.5% of its total capacity.
But at an average of only 15% to 17.5% capacity factor, this produces from
15.8 to 18.4 terawatt-hours of energy in a year.
So the entire national German wind power production represents only about
22% of the 79TWh of the Province of Ontario's nuclear production.

Jaro

Jaro Franta,
Montréal, Québec
web master, CNS Québec branch:
http://www.cns-snc.ca/branches/quebec/quebec.html

<><><><><><><><><><><>

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl]On
Behalf Of Stewart Farber
Sent: February 21, 2006 11:27 AM
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [ RadSafe ] World's Biggest Wind Park -Capacity Factor vs.
Nuclear

      Hi,
      An interesting note and link [below my signature], regarding a
proposed 1,500 MW[e] windmill complex in Norway for an alternate energy,
non-fossil, non-nuclear power generation source. As announced, the
Norwegians will be investing $2.4 billion [US]. The article states that they
hope to realize 13.14 terawatt hours of generation per year.

      This hoped for generation from this windfarm, supposedly the largest
in the world,  would yield a capacity factor of 32% if they meet their
target vs. nuclear plants realizing capacity factors on average of well over
80%. Even at 80% capacity assumed for a nuclear plant, the capacity of
windmills to equal the output  would have to be 2.5 times higher [at a
minimum] .

      Thus an installed capacity of this windmill complex at 1,500 MW[e]
would equal the actual output per year of a 600 MW[e] nuclear plant [at 80%
capacity]. This important point about capacity factors  of one option [wind]
being so much less than nuclear has to be considered in judging alternatives
vs. an economic comparison for construction and whether the costs of overall
operations of one vs. the other [including the staff and rad protection
activities for nuclear] makes continued operation of installed nuclear
capacity and the construction of new capacity a wise and justifiable
investment for a society.

      Stewart Farber, MSPH [Air Pollution Control]
      farbersa at optonline.net
      ==================
      Norway Firm Plans World's Biggest Wind Park
      http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/35223/story.htm

      OSLO - A Norwegian firm has applied for a concession for the world's
biggest wind power development off western Norway with total capacity of
1,500 megawatts produced by hundreds of turbines, it said on Monday.
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