[ RadSafe ] TFP - BASIC ISSUE

Fri Jan 6 12:50:55 CST 2006

Hi all,
Some musings on a Friday afternoon about the absurdity of the TFP claims.

I can't help remarking [again] that the claims of the TFP fail on a first order analysis of the environmental inventories of Sr-90 in northern temperate latitudes from open air nuclear bomb testing which essentially ended in 1963 except for a few trivial tests by the Chinese, and minor deposition in the US from the Chernobyl accident [which added about 1% to pre-exiting bomb test fallout inventory of Cs-137 and less for Sr-90]  The TFP's recent claims of an increase in Sr-90 of some consequence from nuclear plants, and supposed effects on human health,  is absurd.

For example -KEY TECHNICAL POINTS SUPPORTING MY STATEMENT:

After all was said and done as of 1968 or so, open air bomb testing [US and Soviet Union] contamination from Sr-90 of the Northern temperate latitudes was very approximately 40 milliCuries per sq. km. [40,000 microCuries per sq. km].  [Cs-137 was about 70 millicuries/km^2]. There were variations in the US in these deposition numbers of perhaps a range of 3 in hi and lo, from location to location.

With the  half life of Sr-90, given the average of Sr-90 at 40 millicuries/km^2 at its peak, annual decay of the existing environmental inventory would be approx. 1000 microCuries per sq. km.

US nuclear plants emit about 10 microCuries each per year into the environment.

THUS, IF ALL THE SR-90 RELEASED FROM EACH NUCLEAR PLANT WERE TO DEPOSIT IN A SINGLE SQUARE KILOMETER AROUND EACH FACILITY, THE 10 MICROCURIES OF SR-90 RELEASED WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE EXISTING SR-90 INVENTORY WHICH AS OF 1968 WAS DECAYING [ IN THAT hypothetical SQUARE KILOMETER of power plant related deposition] AT THE RATE OF ABOUT 1,000 MICROCURIES PER SQ. KILOMETER.  

Existing environmental inventory decay of Sr-90 was and is about 100 TUNE HIGHER  than what is being added by nuclear plant operations. Of course, any releases to the environment from an given nuclear plant will not magically deposit in one square kilometer, and anyone supposedly living near a nuclear plant per the TFP would be exposed to EVER LOWER and lower environmental inventories of Sr-90 AS THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENTAL INVENTORY DECLINED AND NUCLEAR PLANT RELEASES WERE UNABLE TO MAINTAIN THE SR-90 INVENTORY.

So, the issued is NOT  radiological sample analytical technique or data quality, but the crude manipulation of analytical results in a campaign that is simply politically biased, anti-nuclear power propaganda by the TFP. The analytical techniques [review of data gathered] being used are based on careful selection of what subjects they include as being born "near" a nuclear plant, the window of time selected for a comparison pre and post plant operations, the moving & selectable window of time employed for health outcome comparisons, etc., etc.

Sternglass was ultimately condemned by the National Academy of Sciences for only selecting data that supported his hypothesis and ignoring data which did not.   Sternglass had been connected with the TFP for some time. Mangano having learned from his tutor Sternglass, the TFP, and those associated with this project in attempting to mislead legislators, the media, and the public on this emotional issue to the detriment of nuclear power plant operations will ultimately be found to be as dishonest as Sternglass was judged by the National Academy of Science in 1972 for his claims about nuclear test fallout health effects. Whether the TFP is ever called to task for its deception is another matter.

I recall a wonderful quote from C. Northkote Parkinson, father of Parkinson's law and other wonderful statements. He once said:

"The amount of time devoted to any item in an agenda, is inversely proportional to its sum."

How true.

Stewart Farber, MS Public Health
The Prometheus Group, LLC
[203] 367-0791