[ RadSafe ] ...- CO2 consequences

Dukelow, James S Jr jim.dukelow at pnl.gov
Tue Sep 12 17:56:32 CDT 2006

Michael McNaughton and Don Mercado wrote:
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael McNaughton [mailto:mcnaught at lanl.gov] 
Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2006 3:28 PM
To: Mercado, Don; Ruth Sponsler; Dukelow, James S Jr; Rainer.Facius at dlr.de; hflong at pacbell.net; Jim.Muckerheide at state.ma.us; radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: RE: [ RadSafe ] ...- CO2 consequences

Physics detail: the earth loses heat by radiation, which is proportional to the absolute temperature to the fourth power, T^4 (Stefan-Boltzmann Law). 
Therefore, if the input power increases by 0.2%, which means a factor of 1.002, the temperature will increase by 1.002^0.25 = 1.0005.

At 08:37 AM 09/12/2006, Mercado, Don wrote:
>  Back of an envelope calculation: Earth is estimated to have warmed 
> 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C so all we need to do is divide the estimated 
> temperature increment by Earth's temperature (288 K) and times by 100 
> to get the percentage increment thus: 0.6 (K)/288 (K) x 100 = 0.2%. 
> So, the sun is 0.2% more energetic and conveniently the planet's 
> temperature is believed to have increased 0.2%. Solar influence 
> explains the entire change, now everyone's content the global warming thing has been solved, right? No?
> Us neither, although solar variance seems a likely candidate for at 
> least a portion of the apparent change."

Mike McNaughton
Los Alamos National Lab.
email: mcnaught at LANL.gov or mcnaughton at LANL.gov
phone: 505-667-6130; page: 505-664-7733


Climate researchers exercising the various AOGCMs have generally found that they get the best fits to 20th century temperature time series by including the increase in insolation, the cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions in 1912, 1963, 1983, and 1992, assumed changes in aerosols, and increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases.  Increase in insolation appears to account for about a third of 20th century warming.

Best regards.

Jim Dukelow
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Richland, WA
Jim.dukelow at pnl.gov

These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.

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