[ RadSafe ] Chernobyl fallout and school outcome

[Brennan, Mike (DOH)]

>From the abstract: "...students from the eight most affected
municipalities were 3.6 percentage points less likely to qualify to high
school as a result of the fallout."  

Stating that the observed results are caused by the fallout is something
that requires more than a little statistical manipulation.  Even if the
observed correlation is real, and not an artifact of data pruning, and
even if the differences between "the eight most affected" and the rest
is statistically significant, that does not prove fallout was the cause.
Such a claim requires both positive and negative support.  For example,
due to rather exuberant above ground testing of nuclear weapons, there
are regions of the USA in which there were fallout gradients, so you
could find pretty much any level you wish.  Do the areas in which the
fallout levels were comparable to the most affected municipalities show
a similar decrease in IQ?  

In the other direction, there are possible causes that need to be
eliminated.  For example, it is widely accepted that the stress level of
a woman has an effect on her unborn child.  Models and studies support
this.  Do children whose mothers experienced comparable levels of stress
and those in the eight most affected municipalities, but for whom
radiation was not an issue, show any difference from their birth cohort?

I haven't read the report, but if it is complete enough to support an
unqualified conclusion of causality there should be mention of
supporting investigations in the abstract. 

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On
Behalf Of Bjorn Cedervall
Sent: Friday, August 17, 2007 12:04 AM
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Chernobyl fallout and school outcome

The following message can now be found in various Swedish media:
http://www.columbia.edu/~le93/Research.htm

Any comments?

My personal action only,

bcradsafers at hotmail.com   Bjorn Cedervall

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